Investor Positioning and Flows

• Across sectors, positioning is modestly overweight in MCG & Tech, Energy and Health Care, underweight elsewhere. MCG & Tech positioning (0.18sd, 40th percentile) declined notably but remained modestly overweight, while Energy (0.15sd, 74th percentile) flipped from being modestly underweight to modestly overweight. Positioning in Consumer Cyclicals (-0.25sd, 57th percentile) declined sharply from modestly overweight to notably underweight, while Materials (-0.29sd, 21st percentile) stayed underweight. Financials (-0.73sd, 11th percentile) and Industrial Cyclicals (-0.59sd, 21st percentile) positioning declined sharply and are close to the bottom of their historical ranges. Among the defensives, positioning in Healthcare (0.03sd, 54th percentile) inched higher to just above neutral, while in Real Estate (-0.24sd, 51st percentile) rose modestly but remained underweight. Positioning in Utilities (-0.27sd, 34th percentile) and Consumer Staples (-0.27sd, 13th percentile) declined and remained underweight.

• Under discretionary investor positioning,

• The ratio of call-to-put volume (5d ma) declined modestly this week (77th percentile), as a decline in index option volumes more-than-offset increases in ETF and single-stock option volumes. Within single-stock options, the decline was most pronounced in MCG & Tech, with a more modest decline in Financials. Consumer Cyclicals and Defensives registered modest increases, while other sector groups saw only minor changes. S&P 500 options skew (3m, 90%-110%) rose this week.

• A basket of stocks with the highest net call volume in the prior week as well as a basket of the most shorted stocks underperformed the broader market this week.

• Investor sentiment (bull minus bear spread) turned slightly bearish (30th percentile). Bullish responses (56th percentile) and neutral responses (8th percentile) declined modestly, while bearish responses (84th percentile) rose modestly.

• Under systematic strategies positioning,

• Vol control funds’ equity allocation declined this week but remains elevated (98th percentile). Their sensitivity to selloffs increased sharply, making funds more responsive to downside moves than last week. With positioning still stretched, capacity to add further equity exposure remains limited, while the higher sensitivity to selloffs means a less supportive flow backdrop if volatility rises.

• CTAs’ equity positioning declined this week but remains overweight (66th percentile). Exposure stayed high in Europe (76th percentile) and EM (77th percentile), while it rose in the US (72nd percentile) and Japan (59th percentile). In other asset classes, bond shorts remain extreme (US 11th percentile, Europe 12th percentile) and dollar longs remain elevated (97th percentile). In commodities, positioning in gold remains short (15th percentile), while that in copper (97th percentile) and oil (79th percentile) remains notably long.

• Risk parity funds’ equity allocations increased this week (80th percentile). Exposure rose across regions, with the US (85th percentile), developed markets ex-US (81st percentile), and EM (71st percentile) all moving higher. At the same time, bond allocations remain below historical norms (30th percentile). Exposures to commodities (97th percentile) rose further, while to REITs (86th percentile) and broader inflation hedges (80th percentile) declined but remained elevated. Overall, risk parity equity positioning remains elevated while also favoring inflation hedges and commodities.

• Weekly fund flows to ETFs & mutual funds: Sharp acceleration equity inflows ($64.5bn) and deceleration in bond inflows ($11.8bn), while money market funds (-$53.1bn) witnessed large outflows.

• Equity funds ($64.5bn) witnessed a sharp acceleration in inflows, driven primarily by the US ($39.1bn) and EM ($17.7bn). Inflows to broad-global funds ($8.2bn) moderated but remained solid. While Japan ($0.4bn) returned to modest inflows, Europe (-$1.5bn) saw a reversal to outflows. Within EM, substantial flows went to Asia ex- Japan ($14.9bn), led by China ($8.7bn), Taiwan ($5.5bn) and Korea ($1.1bn). Latam ($2.2bn) also absorbed big inflows, their largest on record, while broad-EM ($0.4bn) and EMEA ($0.2bn) received modest inflows.

• Among dedicated sector funds, Tech ($10.7bn) inflows rose to their highest in 11 weeks. Energy ($1.3bn) and Health Care ($1.2bn) also witnessed robust inflows, their highest weekly levels in five and three months respectively. Materials and Real Estate received modest inflows of $0.3bn each. At the other end, Industrials (- $1.6bn) suffered their biggest weekly outflows in over 12 years. Financials (-$1.4bn) witnessed outflows for a second straight week. Consumer Goods (-$0.6bn) and Telecom (-$0.1bn) also saw outflows, while flows to Utilities were muted.

• Inflows to bond funds ($11.8bn) continued but slowed notably to their lowest in four weeks. Government bonds ($3.6bn) continued to attract inflows, albeit at a significantly slower pace than last week. Inflows to broad-mandate bonds ($0.8bn) and IG funds ($2.8bn) also moderated considerably. In contrast, Munis ($4.5bn)

• Money market funds (-$53.1bn) saw a sharp reversal to big outflows following last week's massive inflows. The outflows were driven by the US (-$56.2bn), while Europe ($0.7bn) and Japan ($0.5bn) received modest inflows.

Table Of Contents

• DB S&P 500 Forecasts 5
• Our Recent Publications 5
• Consolidated Equity Positioning 6
• Sector Positioning 7
• Volatility-Sensitive Systematic Strategies 10
• Investor Sentiment 15
• Equity Short Interest 16
• Option Metrics 18
• S&P 500 Options: Vol, Skew, Correlation 20
• Equity funds beta to the S&P 500 20
• Cross-Asset Fund Flows 21
• Equity Fund Flows 23
• Bond Fund Flows 25
• Cross-Asset Futures Positioning 27
• Equity Futures Positioning 28
• Bond Futures Positioning 31
• FX Futures Positioning 34
• Commodity Futures Positioning 38
• Buybacks Tracker 40
• Appendix 41

DB S&P 500 Forecasts

DB S&P 500 forecasts

S&P 500 2026 target

• 8000

S&P 500 2026 EPS

• $358

S&P 500 2027 EPS

• $420

Our Recent Publications

Investor Positioning And Flows

• Ready For The Next V-Turn: Moving Tech From Overweight To Neutral - Oct
• 9 2026
• Rates Vol Taking A Toll - Oct 2 2026
• Rotation Into Tech Still Has Room To Run - Sep 25 2026
• Discretionary Investors Very Cautious Already - Sep 18 2026
• Battling Multiple Catalysts - Sep 11 2026
• Chopping In A Tight Range – Sep 4 2026
• Sideways At Modestly Overweight - Aug 28 2026
• Another Post-Earnings-Season Lull - Aug 21 2026
• Chart Pack – Aug 14 2026
• Another Sharp Catch Up Rally – Aug 7 2026
• Rotating On Cue Again – Jul 31 2026

Asset Allocation

• Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Not Looking For A Deceleration - Oct 7 2026
• Looking Out To Year End: Still Constructive - Sep 18 2026
• Q2 2026 Global Earnings Takes: Big Beats And Raises As Growth
• Accelerates - Aug 7 2026
• What Companies Are Saying: The Boom Is Much Broader Than AI - Aug 7
• 2026
• Q2 2026 Earnings: Broad Based Acceleration - Jul 31 2026
• Q2 2026 Earnings: Looking For Growth In The High 20s - Jun 30 2026
• Is The Surge In Capex Crowding Out Buybacks? Jun 23 2026
• What Companies Are Saying: Time To Stop Calling Them Shocks? - May 14
• 2026
• Q1 2026 Global Earnings: Tech Drives Robust Growth - May 11 2026
• Q1 Earnings Takes: A Sharp Acceleration, Raising Estimates - May 04 2026

Consolidated Equity Positioning

Equity positioning indicators include: CTA portfolio weight, Risk-Parity portfolio weight, Vol control allocation, active MF beta, AAII Bull-Bear spread, cash equity median shorts , ETF short interest, equity futures positions, Call/Put volume, S&P 500 option skew. More details can be found in Appendix Systematic strategy indicators: CTA portfolio weight, Risk-Parity portfolio weight, Vol control allocation, equity futures positions; Discretionary indicators: Active MF beta, AAII Bull-Bear spread, cash equity median shorts, ETF short interest, equity futures positions, Call/Put volume, S&P 500 option skew

Sector Positioning

3 Sector positioning indicator includes: Wtd Call/Put volume, S&P 500 cash shorts as % of mkt cap, sector fund flows, active MF excess return correlation and Sell-side analyst consensus targets. More details can be found in the Appendix

Figure 9

Figure 15

Volatility-Sensitive Systematic Strategies 4

4 More details can be found in Appendix

Figure 25

5 In mid-September 2025, our model was recalibrated to include funds allocation data extending through Q1 2025 Vol funds total equity allocation tries to mimic the equity rebalancing behavior of a sample of 25 Vol funds following a constant target volatility strategy.

Figure 29

7 These are model-based portfolio weights, and take into account for each asset class the momentum trend signal, volatility, and cross-asset correlations. The model is designed to follow movements in CTA benchmark indices.

Figure 33

Figure 37

8 These are our model-based portfolio weights calculated to balance the risk contribution across different asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities), using volatility and cross-asset correlations. The model is designed to follow movements in risk-parity benchmark indices

Investor Sentiment

9 Investor sentiment (Bull minus Bear spread) from the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

Equity Short Interest

10 Median of each company's shorted shares taken as % of total shares outstanding across the Russell 3000 universe 11 Single stocks short interest aggregate (price*shorted shares) across the Russell 3000 universe, taken as % of overall Russell 3000 market cap. 12 Single stocks short interest aggregate (price*shorted shares), taken as % of market cap for indices

Figure 51

Option Metrics

* Calls minus puts; Data as of 15-Oct-2026 * Calls minus puts; Data as of 15-Oct-2026

13 Call/Put volume ratio (5d ma): 5-day rolling average of the ratio of total call volume to total put volume across single stocks, indices and ETPs.

Figure 61

14 Net Bullish Opened option volumes: Difference between newly opened aggregate bullish contracts (buying a new Call or writing a Put) minus newly opened aggregate bearish contracts (buying a new Put or writing a Call).

S&P 500 Options: Vol, Skew, Correlation

横向滑动查看完整图表

Equity funds beta to the S&P 500 15

Latest data for 14-Oct-2026 Latest data for 15-Oct-2026

15 Equity mutual funds and L/S Hedge Index (HFRXEH) rolling 1-month and 3-month beta to SPX.

Cross-Asset Fund Flows

横向滑动查看完整图表

横向滑动查看完整图表

BELOW AVERAGE and SLOWING -0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 Latest data for 14-Oct

Figure 72

Equity Fund Flows

横向滑动查看完整图表

Latest data as of 14-Oct-2026 *Funds with a global mandate; Latest data as of 14-Oct-2026

Figure 79

Bond Fund Flows

横向滑动查看完整图表

Figure 88

Cross-Asset Futures Positioning

横向滑动查看完整图表

横向滑动查看完整图表

Equity Futures Positioning

-10% -10% -20% -15% -15% -30% -20% -20% S&P 500 Nasdaq 100 Russell -25% -25% 2000 S&P 500 Nasdaq Russell S&P 400 DJIA Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026 100 2000 Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026

Figure 102

Figure 108

Bond Futures Positioning

-550 -500 6.0 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-21 May-21 May-22 May-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-21 May-21 May-22 May-23 May-24 May-25 May-26 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026 Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026

Figure 116

Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026

Figure 122

Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026 Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026

FX Futures Positioning

Trade wtd positions in JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CHF and CAD Trade wtd positions in JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CHF and CAD Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026 Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026

Figure 134

Figure 140

Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026 Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026

Figure 146

Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026 Positioning data as of 13 Oct 2026

Commodity Futures Positioning

Figure 158

Buybacks Tracker

Appendix

Aggregate Equity Positioning Indicator

• Our measure of aggregate equity positioning is a weighted average of Z-scores across several positioning indicators. The indicator weights are based on the explanatory power of each variable in a regression with movements in the S&P 500.

Below is the list of indicators used in the aggregate positioning indicator

• Vol-control funds equity allocation (Systematic). Vol funds total equity allocation tries to mimic the equity rebalancing behavior of a sample of 25 Vol funds following a constant target volatility strategy. More details can be found in the report ‘Derivatives Spotlight: Vol Control Products Disentangled: A Driver of Low-to-High Vol Transitions – 24 Aug 2016’

• CTAs equity weight (Systematic). These are model-based portfolio weights, and take into account for each asset class the momentum trend signal, volatility, and cross asset correlations. The model is designed to follow movements in CTA benchmark indices.

• Risk-parity funds equity portfolio weight (Systematic). These are our model-based portfolio weights calculated to balance the risk contribution across different asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities), using volatility and cross asset correlations. The model is designed to follow movements in risk parity benchmark indices.

• Equity futures (Systematic/Discretionary). Aggregate net long futures (long minus short contracts) for Asset managers and Leveraged funds in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, S&P 400 and DJIA index, taken as a percentage of their open interest. Data from CFTC’s Traders in Financial Futures report.

• Call/Put volume ratio (Discretionary). Ratio of total call volume to put volume across single stocks, indices and ETPs. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

• S&P 500 3m option skew (Discretionary). S&P 500 options skew (90%- 110% moneyness implied volatility spread, 3-month maturity) from Bloomberg. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500, and the z-score values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite.

• Investor Bull minus Bear spread (Discretionary). Investor sentiment (Bull minus Bear spread) from the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

• Cash equity median shorts (Discretionary). Median of Russell 3000 universe shorted shares, taken as % of outstanding shares. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500, and the z-score values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite.

• ETFs short interest (Discretionary). Aggregate short interest (price*shorted shares) of more than 100 largest equity ETFs in the US, taken as % of overall Russell 3000 market cap. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500, and the z-score values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite.

• Schwab Retail positioning index (Discretionary). Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) which gauges the sentiment of retail investors.

• MFs holdings beta (Discretionary). The equity beta of the holdings of a sample of broad active equity mutual funds (excluding cash) taken from their quarterly 13F filings. The beta of the holdings to S&P 500 returns is calculated over a 3-year window

Sectors Equity Positioning

• As an extension of the aggregate equity positioning, the sector positioning measure is also a weighted average of Z-scores across different sector level positioning indicators. The indicator weights are based on the explanatory power of each variable in a regression with movements in the S&P 500 sectors. More details can be found in the report 'Investor Positioning and Flows - Looking Across Sectors, Jul 7 2023'

Below is the list of indicators used in the large cap sector positioning measure

• Weighted Call/Put volume ratio. Ratio of Call volume to Put volume across stocks, weighted by their market caps and averaged out over the last one month. Data from the OCC.

• Sector fund flows: Fund flows to sector based ETFs and mutual funds, taken as a percentage of AUM, and averaged out for the last 4 weeks. Data from EPFR.

• S&P 500 cash shorts as % of market cap. S&P 500 sector short interest, taken as % of their market cap. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500 sector performance, and the z-score values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite.

• Active MFs excess return correlation. Rolling 3-month correlation of the excess returns of a representative sample of US blended mutual funds with S&P 500 sector excess returns (both relative to the S&P 500).

• Analyst consensus target. Analysts current 12-month target price for the S&P 500 sector, taken as a ratio to its 200d ma. Data from Bloomberg Finance LP.