Research library
长篇研报按日期保存，每篇报告整理为独立的连续阅读页面，正文、图表与方法说明按内容顺序编排。
The People’s Bank (PBoC) Appears To Be Changing Course
The relationship between a basket of cryptocurrencies (BES$ – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana) and Global Liquidity (GLI$) remains strong and robust. The data suggest an apparent lead time of around three months, with the recent correlation close to 0.57.
China’s growth momentum slowed sharply in recent months, with real GDP growth falling from 5.3% qoq annualized in Q1 to 3.6% in Q2. Retail sales and fixed asset investment both weakened meaningfully, raising downside risks to the government’s 4.5-5% full-year GDP growth target.
Market activities and sentiment sequentially improved at margin
Transaction volumes increased by 7% and 1% week over week in primary and secondary markets, sending month-to-date July year-over-year improvements in both markets to 6% and 2%, respectively.
Household Wealth Gains amid Consumption Constraints
Despite the recent correction in July, the KOSPI remains up around 60% year to date and more than 110% from a year ago, boosting household equity wealth by an estimated 17% of GDP.
Three quick highlights from China
China’s real GDP growth slowed from 5.0% year over year in Q1 to 4.3% in Q2, below the consensus expectation of 4.5%.
Consumption momentum softened sequentially
Household disposable income per capita rose 5.6% year over year in Q2, while household nominal consumption growth increased modestly to 3.8%. Sequential consumption growth nevertheless softened from Q1.
This remains an unusual memory cycle, as data center strength is the only cause. Mixed signals elsewhere may therefore be a false flag, while memory is catching up quickly in risk-reward terms.
Agentic AI is reshaping the enterprise software stack, changing customer priorities and shifting investment budgets faster than previous technology transitions.
Inflation rates rolling; earnings to offer support
Various AI groups have had a challenging spell of performance, with sharp declines across Korea, semiconductors and individual memory stocks as market leadership broadens.
Renewed Escalation vs. Lower Inflation
Renewed escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices back up, with the Brent futures path above the report’s forecasts of $80 per barrel in 2026Q4 and $75 in 2027.
Say Hello to Kimi. She is going to increase the GPU and memory demand
First, let’s spend a few seconds on what actually worries me, and then we will get to our new friend Kimi from China, which does not worry me at all. At least if you are not a holder of Anthropic or OpenAI stock, where it is a potential issue for them, but not for the hardware trade.
Positioning Eases but Vulnerabilities Remain
The technology-led selloff weakened positioning across major equity markets. Nasdaq remains vulnerable because long positions are offside, European positioning continues to deteriorate, and KOSPI retains the largest regional deleveraging risk.