Deutsche Bank Research

Investor Positioning and Flows

Rotating On Cue Again

The rotation out of Tech began on cue two months ago from the top of its long-run trend channel (Tech Comes Full Circle, May 15 2026), and in our reading, the rotation back has also begun on cue after hitting the bottom earlier this week. MCG & Tech positioning fell sharply from elevated levels to near neutral this week and has bounced slightly higher (62nd percentile). It is in line with earnings growth around 20%, i.e., already implying a sharp slowing from the 52% it is tracking for Q2 (Q2 2026 Earnings: Broad Based Acceleration, Jul 31 2026). We see the rotation into Tech having further to go with a typical outperformance of 20pp. This would be the 5th such rotation in the last 3 years with the market focus repeatedly swinging between stellar growth and bubbles fears at an increasing rate. Within Tech, we see the best risk-reward in the hyperscalers whose relative performance to the S&P 500 is just off the bottom of a 3-year range.

Parag Thatte · Binky Chadha · Karthik Prabhu · Dag Workayehu下载原始 PDF

Charts of the week

Figure 1The relative performance of MCG & Tech has again bounced off the bottom of its long-run trend channel …
Figure 2… for the 5th time in the last 3 years
Figure 3Large-cap Tech positioning is modestly overweight but significantly below levels implied by booming earnings growth …
Figure 4… and upward earnings revisions
Figure 5Within Tech, Semis funds have enjoyed inflows on the way up as well as down …
Figure 6… while inflows into Tech more broadly have been muted
Figure 7Hyperscalers have caught down to the S&P 500
Figure 8Relative performance of the hyperscalers is just off the bottom of a 3year range
Figure 9Credit spreads and equity performance for Tech have been closely tied

Positioning and flows detail

Our measure of aggregate equity positioning was choppy this week and remained slightly below neutral (-0.06sd, 37th percentile). Discretionary investor positioning (-0.53sd, 17th percentile) remained notably underweight, near its early-April lows, while systematic strategies’ positioning (0.51sd, 70th percentile) stayed overweight. Large-cap positioning (0.28sd, 59th percentile) was also choppy but remained modestly overweight, as did large-cap Tech positioning (0.47sd, 62nd percentile). Small-cap positioning (-0.12sd, 44th percentile) remained modestly underweight.

Under discretionary investor positioning,

The ratio of call to put volume (5d ma) declined again this week, reaching its lowest level in a month (31st percentile). Net call volume for index options decreased, while net call volume for ETF options increased and remained largely unchanged for singlestock options. Within single-stock options, volume declined in MCG & Tech and defensive sectors, while other sector groups experienced only minimal changes. S&P 500 options skew (3m, 90%-110%) declined sharply late in the week after reaching a three-month high.

A basket of stocks with the highest net call volume in the prior week underperformed the broader market this week, while a basket of the most-shorted stocks also marginally underperformed.

Investor sentiment (bull minus bear spread) edged up slightly to become less bearish (17th percentile). Bullish responses (28th percentile) rose modestly, while neutral responses fell slightly (31st percentile). Bearish responses (85th percentile) moved largely sideways.

Under systematic strategies’ positioning,

Vol control funds’ equity allocation declined this week closer to neutral (67th percentile). Selloff sensitivity rose slightly over the week but eased from elevated levels mid-week. With positioning no longer extended, they retain capacity to add on lower volatility, but the higher downside sensitivity leaves flows less supportive in drawdowns.

CTAs’ positioning in equities remained at the upper end of its historical range (74th percentile). Positioning declined across most regions, with Europe (78th percentile) and the US (66th percentile) remaining the largest long positions, while EM (59th percentile) and Japan (37th percentile) lagged. Across other asset classes, short positioning in bonds remains elevated (US 13th percentile, European 12th percentile), longs in the dollar increased (93rd percentile), and in commodities, positioning in gold remains short (23rd percentile) while longs in copper (91st percentile) and oil (71st percentile) remain high. Further increases in equity exposure are likely to be driven more by declines in volatility than by additional strengthening in trend signals.

Risk parity funds’ equity positioning increased to above neutral (62nd percentile), while bond allocations remained below neutral (43rd percentile). Equity exposure rose across regions, while allocations to US bonds moved lower (43rd percentile), inflation linked securities were cut but remain elevated (68th percentile), and commodity exposure stayed near historical highs (94th percentile). Overall, the funds continued shifting toward equities while maintaining meaningful exposure to inflation-linked securities and commodities.

Note: We have changed our sector positioning metrics to focus on large cap indices.

Across large-cap sectors, positioning is overweight in MCG & Tech, Financials, Materials, and Energy. Financials (0.49sd, 74th percentile) and MCG & Tech (0.47sd, 62nd percentile) remained overweight, while Materials (0.35sd, 52nd percentile) rose to modestly overweight this week. Energy (0.16sd, 75th percentile) was pared slightly but remained modestly overweight. Among other cyclicals, Industrial Cyclicals (-0.26sd, 39th percentile) stayed modestly underweight, while Consumer Cyclicals (0.56sd, 36th percentile) declined to notably underweight. Among defensives, Utilities (-0.05sd, 47th percentile) and Healthcare (-0.13sd, 41st percentile) remained slightly underweight, while Real Estate (-0.31sd, 44th percentile) and Consumer Staples (-0.35sd, 9th percentile) are underweight.

Weekly fund flows to ETFs & mutual funds: Inflows picked up sharply to equity funds ($63.7bn), while slowing to bond funds ($12.5bn). Inflows to Tech ($15.6bn) bounced back sharply.

Inflows to equity funds ($63.7bn) picked up sharply to their highest in six weeks, marking a fourth consecutive week of strong inflows. Inflows were led by the US ($30.4bn), followed by China ($16.0bn) and broad-global funds ($9.8bn). Japan ($1.2bn) continued to receive steady inflows for an eighth consecutive week, while Europe (-$2.3bn) saw outflows for a second straight week. Within EM ($24.0bn), Asia ex-Japan ($21.8bn) accounted for the bulk of inflows, driven by China ($16.0bn), Taiwan ($4.9bn), and Korea ($1.6bn). Broad-EM ($2.1bn) also received inflows. EMEA ($0.1bn) received small inflows, while flows to Latam were muted.

Among dedicated sector funds, inflows to Tech ($15.6bn) rebounded sharply after slowing last week, bringing total inflows over the past three months to $106bn. Among other sectors, Healthcare ($1.1bn) recorded inflows for an eighth consecutive week. Consumer Goods and Industrials received modest inflows of $0.6bn each, while Financials and Materials attracted $0.4bn each. Utilities ($0.1bn) received small inflows as well. In contrast, Energy (-$0.5bn) and Telecom (-$0.2bn) saw modest outflows this week. Flows to Real Estate were muted.

Inflows to bond funds ($12.5bn) weakened further, falling to their lowest level in more than three months. Inflows to broad-mandate funds ($4.9bn), government bonds ($2.6bn), and IG ($0.6bn) slowed. Flows to HY were muted, while EM (-$0.2bn) recorded modest outflows for the first time in seven weeks. Bank Loans ($1.0bn) continued to receive steady inflows. TIPS ($0.8bn) and MBS ($0.7bn) attracted modest inflows, while inflows to Munis ($2.0bn) picked up this week.

Money market funds ($5.0bn) received modest inflows after seeing large outflows over the past two weeks. Europe ($2.5bn) and EM ($4.2bn) received inflows, while the US (-$1.2bn) and Japan ($0.3bn) saw modest outflows.

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TableDB S&P 500 forecasts

Consolidated Equity Positioning

Figure 10Consolidated equity positioning1
Figure 11Discretionary vs systematic strategies divide2
Figure 12All equity positioning indicators
Figure 13Systematic strategies positioning vs S&P 500 realized volatility
Figure 14Discretionary investor positioning vs ISM Manufacturing
Figure 15Discretionary investor positioning vs S&P 500 earnings growth

Sector Positioning

Note: We have modified our sector metrics to focus on large cap indices

Figure 16Equity positioning across large cap sectors3
Figure 17Mega-cap growth & large cap Tech positioning
Figure 18Large cap Financials positioning
Figure 19Large cap Energy positioning
Figure 20Large cap Consumer cyclicals positioning
Figure 21Large cap Industrial cyclicals positioning
Figure 22Large cap Materials positioning
Figure 23Large cap Consumer Staples positioning
Figure 24Large cap Healthcare positioning
Figure 25Large cap Real Estate positioning
Figure 26Large cap Utilities positioning
Figure 27Small caps positioning
Figure 28Major sector groups positioning
Figure 29Cyclical minus defensives positioning

Volatility-Sensitive Systematic Strategies 4

Figure 30Systematic strategies positioning
Figure 31Vol-Control equity allocations
Figure 32CTAs exposure to equities
Figure 33Risk-Parity portfolio weight in equity
Figure 34Vol-Control funds equity allocations6
Figure 35Vol-Control funds equity allocation and estimated observed equity volatility
Figure 36Vol metrics breakdown
Figure 37Vol-Control funds sensitivity to a 2% market sell-off

Systematic strategies equity positioning Vol-Control funds allocations5 CTA portfolio weights7

Figure 38CTAs exposure to equities
Figure 39CTAs exposure to equity categories (z scores)
Figure 40CTAs exposure to bonds
Figure 41CTAs exposure to bond regions (z scores)
Figure 42CTAs exposure to the US dollar
Figure 43CTAs exposure to Currencies (z-scores)
Figure 44CTAs exposure to Oil
Figure 45CTAs exposure to major Commodities

Risk-Parity funds portfolio weights 8

Figure 46Risk-Parity portfolio weight in equity
Figure 47Risk-Parity portfolio weight in equity regions (z scores)
Figure 48Risk-Parity portfolio weight in bonds
Figure 49Risk-Parity portfolio weight in US inflation-linked bonds
Figure 50Risk-Parity portfolio weight in Commodities
Figure 51Risk-Parity portfolio weight in US REITs

Investor Sentiment

Figure 52Investor bull minus bear spread 9
Figure 53Investor bullish sentiment
Figure 54Investor bearish sentiment
Figure 55Investor neutral sentiment

Equity Short Interest

Figure 56Median cash shorts taken as % of shares outstanding for the Russell 300010
Figure 57Median cash shorts taken as % of shares outstanding for the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100
Figure 58Cash equities short interest as % of market cap 11
Figure 59Cash equities short interest across indices as % of market cap12
Figure 60S&P 500 sectors median cash shorts taken as % of shares outstanding
Figure 61S&P 500 sectors cash equities short interest as % of market cap
Figure 621-month change in sector-wise short interest
Figure 63Short interest basket relative performance

Option Metrics

Figure 64Equity call/put volume ratio 13
Figure 65Equity call vs put volumes
Figure 66Total net call volume
Figure 67Net call volume of single stocks, Index and ETFs
Figure 68All stocks net call volume across sector groups
Figure 69S&P 500 stocks net call volume across sector groups
Figure 70Net call volume of stocks outside of the S&P 500 across sector groups
Figure 71Relative performance of a basket of stocks with the highest call volume in the previous week
Figure 72Net bullish opened option volume for all customers 14
Figure 73Net bullish opened option volume by customer category

S&P 500 Options: Vol, Skew, Correlation

Figure 74S&P 500 realized and implied volatility
Figure 75S&P 500 1m realized and implied correlation
Figure 763M implied vol and skew

Equity funds beta to the S&P 500 15

Figure 77Blended mutual funds beta to the S&P 500
Figure 78Equity L/S HFs beta to the S&P 500

Cross-Asset Fund Flows

Figure 79Summary of fund flows across assets and categories
Figure 80Recent trends in fund flows across asset classes and categories
Figure 81Flows across major asset classes last 4 weeks
Figure 82Flows across major asset classes in last 12 months
Figure 83Cross-asset flows last 4 weeks
Figure 84Cross-asset flows in last 12 months

Equity Fund Flows

Figure 85Recent trends in fund flows across equity fund categories
Figure 86Regional equity fund flows last 4 weeks
Figure 87Equity flows across regions
Figure 88Sector fund flows last 4 weeks
Figure 89Sector fund flows
Figure 90US equity flows into thematic funds last 4 weeks
Figure 91US equity flows into thematic funds
Figure 92Weekly flows into cryptocurrency funds
Figure 93Cumulative flows into cryptocurrency funds

Bond Fund Flows

Figure 94Recent trends in fund flows across bond fund categories
Figure 95Bond fund flows by category last 4 weeks
Figure 96Bond flows by category
Figure 97Bond fund flows by maturity last 4 weeks
Figure 98Bond fund flows by maturity
Figure 99Credit fund flows to US and Europe last 4 weeks
Figure 100Credit fund flows to US and Europe
Figure 101Bond fund flows across regions last 4 weeks
Figure 102Bond fund flows across regions

Cross-Asset Futures Positioning

Figure 103Cross-asset futures positioning
Figure 104Week-over-week changes in futures positioning

Equity Futures Positioning

Figure 105Aggregate US equity futures positioning
Figure 106Aggregate US equity futures and S&P 500 ratio to its 200d ma
Figure 107Aggregate US equity futures and ISM Manufacturing
Figure 108US equity futures positioning
Figure 109Current US equity futures positioning
Figure 110US equity futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 111S&P 500 futures positioning
Figure 112S&P 500 futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 113Russell 2000 futures positioning
Figure 114Russell 2000 futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 115Nasdaq 100 futures positioning
Figure 116Nasdaq 100 futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 117EM equity futures positioning
Figure 118EM equity futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds

Bond Futures Positioning

Figure 119Aggregate bond futures positioning in thousand contracts
Figure 120Aggregate bond futures positioning in % of open interest terms
Figure 121Bond futures positioning by maturity
Figure 122Bond futures positioning by maturity
Figure 12330d Fed Fund futures positioning
Figure 12430d Fed Fund futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 125SOFR futures positioning
Figure 126SOFR futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 1272y Treasury notes futures positioning
Figure 1282y Treasury notes futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 1295y Treasury notes futures positioning
Figure 1305y Treasury notes futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 13110y Treasury notes futures positioning
Figure 13210y Treasury notes futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 13315-25y Treasury bonds futures positioning
Figure 13415-25y Treasury bonds futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 13525y+ Treasury bonds futures positioning
Figure 13625y+ Treasury bonds futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds

FX Futures Positioning

Figure 137US trade-weighted dollar positioning
Figure 138Major currency futures positioning
Figure 139Currency futures positioning
Figure 140Currency futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 141US trade-weighted dollar positioning
Figure 142US trade-weighted dollar positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 143Euro futures positions
Figure 144Euro futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 145Yen futures positions
Figure 146Yen futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 147Sterling futures positions
Figure 148Sterling futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 149Canadian dollar futures positions
Figure 150Canadian dollar futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 151Aussie dollar futures positions
Figure 152Aussie dollar futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 153Swiss franc futures positions
Figure 154Swiss franc futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 155New Zealand dollar futures positions
Figure 156New Zealand dollar futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 157Mexican peso futures positions
Figure 158Mexican peso futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds
Figure 159Brazilian real futures positions
Figure 160Brazilian real futures positioning by asset managers and leveraged funds

Commodity Futures Positioning

Figure 161Oil futures positioning
Figure 162Oil futures gross longs and shorts
Figure 163Copper futures positioning
Figure 164Gold futures positioning
Figure 165Energy futures positioning
Figure 166Precious metals futures positioning
Figure 167Industrial metals futures positioning
Figure 168Agri commodities futures positioning

Buybacks Tracker

Figure 169S&P 500 weekly announced buybacks
Figure 170S&P 500 sectors announced buybacks
Figure 171S&P 500 announced and actual buybacks
Figure 172Buyback baskets performance
Deutsche Bank Research

Report date 31 July 2026. Source material supplied as a 46-page PDF.

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