Investor Positioning and Flows

Rotation Into Tech Still Has Room To Run

In late July, we called for a rotation back into Tech, the 5th in 2 years

• (Rotation On Cue, Jul 31 2026). The rotation is now advanced but still has some room to run. MCG & Tech stocks are up 14% since the end of July to a new record high. The rest of the S&P 500 is down -3% since, having sold off -5.5% over the last 5 weeks. The relative outperformance of MCG & Tech has risen to the upper half of its long-run trend channel but is not yet at the top. Likewise, positioning in MCG & Tech has risen to about 0.8sd (80th

• percentile) above neutral, clearly overweight but well below prior peaks such as in early June when it topped out almost 2sd above (99th percentile). Positioning elsewhere is neutral or modestly below, for both defensive and cyclical sectors (with a modest overweight for Energy the exception). Overall, large cap equity positioning rose this week and is overweight but
• not elevated (79th percentile). Systematic strategy positioning has continued to rise and is now in the top decile (91st percentile), and vulnerable to any vol shocks. Discretionary large-cap investor positioning however is only moderately overweight (64th percentile) despite very strong earnings growth, weighed down primarily by the sharp jump in rates volatility. We continue to see the vol of rates and not their level as key for equities.

Positioning and flows details on page 7

IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank does

Figure 6: Overall equity positioning is overweight but not elevated as systematic strategies continue to raise exposure to elevated levels but discretionary investors are only moderately overweight

DB S&P 500 Forecasts.......................................................................................9 Our Recent Publications....................................................................................9 Consolidated Equity Positioning......................................................................10 Sector Positioning............................................................................................11 Volatility-Sensitive Systematic Strategies .......................................................14 Investor Sentiment..........................................................................................19 Equity Short Interest........................................................................................20 Option Metrics.................................................................................................22 S&P 500 Options: Vol, Skew, Correlation.........................................................24 Equity funds beta to the S&P 500 ...................................................................24 Cross-Asset Fund Flows..................................................................................25 Equity Fund Flows...........................................................................................27 Bond Fund Flows.............................................................................................29 Cross-Asset Futures Positioning......................................................................31 Equity Futures Positioning...............................................................................32 Bond Futures Positioning.................................................................................35 FX Futures Positioning.....................................................................................38 Commodity Futures Positioning......................................................................42 Buybacks Tracker.............................................................................................44 Appendix.........................................................................................................45

• overweight (0.25sd, 58th percentile). Discretionary investor positioning (-0.29sd, 28th percentile) jumped from notably underweight to modestly underweight, while systematic strategies’ positioning (0.91sd, 89th percentile) continued to move higher, marking a new high since Oct 2025. Positioning in large caps (0.51sd, 79th percentile) also rose to overweight, while that in small caps (-0.13sd, 43rd percentile) declined to slightly underweight. Under discretionary investor positioning,

• The ratio of call-to-put volume (5d ma) rose sharply this week (90th
• percentile), driven by a rise in net call volume across single-stock, index, and ETF options. Within single-stock options, volume in MCG & Tech rose sharply, followed by Consumer Cyclicals, Industrial Cyclicals, and the defensives; volume in Energy declined, while that in Materials and Financials was nominal. S&P 500 options skew (3m, 90%-110%) was choppy this week. A basket of stocks with the highest net call volume in the prior

• week outperformed the broader market this week, while a basket of the most shorted stocks performed in line with the market. Investor sentiment (bull minus bear spread) rose this week and
• turned less bearish (12th percentile). Bullish responses (33rd percentile) and neutral responses (7th percentile) increased, while bearish responses (94th percentile) declined.

Under systematic strategies’ positioning,

• Vol control funds’ equity allocation increased this week and
• remains elevated (98th percentile). Sensitivity to selloffs also increased, making funds somewhat more responsive to downside moves than in the prior week. With positioning still stretched, capacity for further equity addition remains limited, while the flow backdrop has become modestly less supportive during market drawdowns. CTAs’ equity positioning edged up slightly (82nd percentile).

• Positioning increased across regions, with the US (90th percentile), Europe (85th percentile), EM (75th percentile), and Japan (62nd percentile) all moving higher. Further increases in equity exposure are still likely to depend more on declining volatility than on stronger trend signals. Across other asset classes, bond shorts remain extreme (US 10th percentile, Europe 11th percentile), while dollar longs increased sharply (89th percentile). In commodities, positioning in gold remains short (14th percentile), while that in copper (98th percentile) and oil (78th percentile) remains very long. Risk parity funds’ equity allocations declined this week but

• continue to be elevated (77th percentile). Exposure remains strongest in the US (82nd percentile) and developed markets ex-US (78th percentile), while in EM remains modestly conservative (67th percentile). At the same time, bond allocations remain below historical norms (30th percentile). Exposures to commodities (95th percentile), REITs (95th percentile), and broader inflation-hedges (91st percentile) remain elevated. Overall, risk parity funds shifted slightly from equities toward bonds this week, while maintaining allocation to inflation-sensitive assets and retaining room to increase equity exposure.

underweight. Consumer Cyclicals (-0.20sd, 61st percentile) remained flat, Industrial Cyclicals (-0.20sd, 43rd percentile) and Financials (-0.30sd, 29th percentile) declined modestly, and Materials (-0.25sd, 22nd percentile) rose. Among defensives, Healthcare (0.02sd, 53rd percentile) and Consumer Staples (-0.03sd, 30th percentile) rose to neutral this week. Real Estate (-0.34sd, 44th percentile) declined sharply to underweight, while Utilities (-0.53sd, 18th percentile) remained underweight. Weekly fund flows to ETFs and mutual funds: Equity funds (-$10.2bn)

• recorded their first weekly outflows in three months, while inflows to bond funds ($17.3bn) picked up after slowing last week. Money market funds ($11.6bn) also attracted inflows.

Equity funds (-$10.2bn) recorded their first outflows in three

• months, driven primarily by the largest outflows from the US ($21.2bn) in six months. In contrast, inflows to broad-global funds ($13.3bn) remained robust, for a sixth straight month. Japan ($0.3bn) received small inflows, while Europe (-$0.4bn) saw modest outflows for a second consecutive week. EM (-$3.9bn) registered outflows, largely driven by Asia ex-Japan (-$3.6bn), particularly China (-$2.4bn), India (-$0.7bn), and Korea (-$0.3bn). Broad EM (-$0.7bn) also suffered outflows, while Latam ($0.1bn) and EMEA ($0.4bn) received modest inflows. Among dedicated sector funds, Financials (-$2.5bn) saw their

• biggest weekly outflows in six months, while Tech (-$1.9bn) and Industrials (-$1.0bn) also experienced notable outflows. Real Estate (-$0.6bn), Healthcare (-$0.4bn), Utilities (-$0.2bn), and Materials (-$0.1bn) saw modest outflows, while Telecom ($0.4bn) and Energy ($0.1bn) received modest inflows. Flows to Consumer Goods were muted. Inflows to bond funds ($17.3bn) picked up from last week. Inflows

• to broad-mandate funds ($6.4bn) rose to a three-week high, while Government bonds ($2.4bn) received their smallest inflows in three months. IG ($2.0bn) received inflows, while HY saw only muted flows this week. EM bonds ($4.7bn) continued to attract steady inflows, that reached their highest in four months. Bank loans ($1.7bn) received their largest inflows since Feb 2025. Munis ($1.1bn) and TIPS ($0.4bn) also received inflows, while MBS ($1.3bn) posted their first outflows since Apr. Money market funds ($11.6bn) received inflows this week, driven

• by the US ($17.2bn), while Japan (-$1.3bn) and Europe (-$0.9bn) saw modest outflows.

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Equity positioning indicators include: CTA portfolio weight, Risk-Parity portfolio weight, Vol control 1 allocation, active MF beta, AAII Bull-Bear spread, cash equity median shorts , ETF short interest, equity futures positions, Call/Put volume, S&P 500 option skew. More details can be found in Appendix 2 Systematic strategy indicators: CTA portfolio weight, Risk-Parity portfolio weight, Vol control allocation, equity futures positions; Discretionary indicators: Active MF beta, AAII Bull-Bear spread, cash equity median shorts, ETF short interest, equity futures positions, Call/Put volume, S&P 500

Note: We have modified our sector metrics to focus on large cap indices

3 Sector positioning indicator includes: Wtd Call/Put volume, S&P 500 cash shorts as % of mkt cap, sector fund flows, active MF excess return correlation and Sell-side analyst consensus targets.

Systematic strategies equity positioning

5 In mid-September 2025, our model was recalibrated to include funds allocation data extending through Q1 2025 6 Vol funds total equity allocation tries to mimic the equity rebalancing behavior of a sample of 25 Vol

Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

7 These are model-based portfolio weights, and take into account for each asset class the momentum trend signal, volatility, and cross-asset correlations. The model is designed to follow movements in

Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

8 These are our model-based portfolio weights calculated to balance the risk contribution across different asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities), using volatility and cross-asset correlations.

Figure 54: Median cash shorts taken as % of shares

Figure 55: Median cash shorts taken as % of shares outstanding for the Russell 300010 outstanding for the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq

10 Median of each companies' shorted shares taken as % of total shares outstanding across the Russell 3000 universe 11 Single stocks short interest aggregate (price*shorted shares) across the Russell 3000 universe, taken as % of overall Russell 3000 market cap.

13 Call/Put volume ratio (5d ma): 5-day rolling average of the ratio of total call volume to total put

14 Net Bullish Opened option volumes: Difference between newly opened aggregate bullish contracts (buying a new Call or writing a Put) minus newly opened aggregate bearish contracts (buying a new

Equity funds beta to the S&P 500 15

Figure 107: Current US equity futures positioning

35%

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25%

25%

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5%

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-25%

Aggregate Equity Positioning Indicator

Our measure of aggregate equity positioning is a weighted average of Z-

• scores across several positioning indicators. The indicator weights are based on the explanatory power of each variable in a regression with movements in the S&P 500.

Below is the list of indicators used in the aggregate positioning indicator

Vol-control funds equity allocation (Systematic). Vol funds total equity

• allocation tries to mimic the equity rebalancing behavior of a sample of 25 Vol funds following a constant target volatility strategy. More details can be found in the report ‘Derivatives Spotlight: Vol Control Products Disentangled: A Driver of Low-to-High Vol Transitions – 24 Aug 2016’

CTAs equity weight (Systematic). These are model-based portfolio

• weights, and take into account for each asset class the momentum trend signal, volatility, and cross asset correlations. The model is designed to follow movements in CTA benchmark indices.

Risk-parity funds equity portfolio weight (Systematic). These are our

• model-based portfolio weights calculated to balance the risk contribution across different asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities), using volatility and cross asset correlations. The model is designed to follow movements in risk parity benchmark indices.

Equity futures (Systematic/Discretionary). Aggregate net long futures

• (long minus short contracts) for Asset managers and Leveraged funds in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, S&P 400 and DJIA index, taken as a percentage of their open interest. Data from CFTC’s Traders in Financial Futures report.

Call/Put volume ratio (Discretionary). Ratio of total call volume to put

• volume across single stocks, indices and ETPs. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

S&P 500 3m option skew (Discretionary). S&P 500 options skew (90%-

• 110% moneyness implied volatility spread, 3-month maturity) from Bloomberg. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500, and the zscore values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite.

Investor Bull minus Bear spread (Discretionary). Investor sentiment (Bull

• minus Bear spread) from the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

Cash equity median shorts (Discretionary). Median of Russell 3000

• universe shorted shares, taken as % of outstanding shares. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500, and the z-score values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite.

ETFs short interest

(Discretionary).

Aggregate short interest

• (price*shorted shares) of more than 100 largest equity ETFs in the US, taken as % of overall Russell 3000 market cap. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500, and the z-score values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite.

MFs holdings beta (Discretionary). The equity beta of the holdings of a

• sample of broad active equity mutual funds (excluding cash) taken from their quarterly 13F filings. The beta of the holdings to S&P 500 returns is calculated over a 3-year window

Sectors Equity Positioning

As an extension of the aggregate equity positioning, the sector positioning

• measure is also a weighted average of Z-scores across different sector level positioning indicators. The indicator weights are based on the explanatory power of each variable in a regression with movements in the S&P 500 sectors. More details can be found in the report 'Investor Positioning and Flows - Looking Across Sectors, Jul 7 2023'

Below is the list of indicators used in the large cap sector positioning measure

Weighted Call/Put volume ratio. Ratio of Call volume to Put volume across

• stocks, weighted by their market caps and averaged out over the last one month. Data from the OCC. Sector fund flows: Fund flows to sector based ETFs and mutual funds,
• taken as a percentage of AUM, and averaged out for the last 4 weeks. Data from EPFR. S&P 500 cash shorts as % of market cap. S&P 500 sector short interest,
• taken as % of their market cap. Indicator is negatively correlated with the S&P 500 sector performance, and the z-score values are multiplied by -1 before inclusion in the composite. Active MFs excess return correlation. Rolling 3-month correlation of the

• excess returns of a representative sample of US blended mutual funds with S&P 500 sector excess returns (both relative to the S&P 500). Analyst consensus target. Analysts current 12-month target price for the
• S&P 500 sector, taken as a ratio to its 200d ma. Data from Bloomberg Finance LP.

Appendix 1

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Backtested, hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record based on trading actual client portfolios, simulated results are achieved by means of the retroactive application of a backtested model itself designed with the benefit of hindsight. Taking into account historical events the backtesting of performance also differs from actual account performance because an actual investment strategy may be adjusted any time, for any reason, including a response to material, economic or market factors. The backtested performance includes hypothetical results that do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage or other commissions, and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid. No representation is made that any trading strategy or account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Alternative modeling techniques or assumptions might produce significantly different results and prove to be more appropriate. Past hypothetical backtest results are neither an indicator nor guarantee of future returns. Actual results will vary, perhaps materially, from the analysis.

The method for computing individual E,S,G and composite ESG scores set forth herein is a novel method developed by the Research department within Deutsche Bank AG, computed using a systematic approach without human intervention. Different data providers, market sectors and geographies approach ESG analysis and incorporate the findings in a variety of ways. As such, the ESG scores referred to herein may differ from equivalent ratings developed and implemented by other ESG data providers in the market and may also differ from equivalent ratings developed and implemented by other divisions within the Deutsche Bank Group. Such ESG scores also differ from other ratings and rankings that have historically been applied in research reports published by Deutsche Bank AG. Further, such ESG scores do not represent a formal or official view of Deutsche Bank AG. It should be noted that the decision to incorporate ESG factors into any investment strategy may inhibit the ability to participate in certain investment opportunities that otherwise would be consistent with your investment objective and other principal investment strategies. The returns on a portfolio consisting primarily of sustainable investments may be lower or higher than portfolios where ESG factors, exclusions, or other sustainability issues are not considered, and the investment opportunities available to such portfolios may differ. Companies may not necessarily meet high performance standards on all aspects of ESG or sustainable investing issues; there is also no guarantee that any company will meet expectations in connection with corporate responsibility, sustainability, and/or impact performance.

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