US Equity Views: AI capex, required revenues, and what’s priced in the AI trade
Outlook for AI capex: The largest US AI hyperscalers are on track to spend $800 billion in capex in 2026 and consensus expects $1.1 trillion in spending in 2027. Our baseline forecast is that capex spending will increase in 2027 and surpass consensus estimates but the rate of both capex growth and upside surprises will diminish relative to recent quarters.
What capex signals about required AI revenues: Based on average annual capex in 2026 and 2027, our equity analysts estimate that the hyperscalers need to generate annual AI revenues of roughly $300 billion in the next few years to break even on their investments. Hyperscaler cloud revenues have accelerated sharply this year, annualizing roughly $70 billion above the pre-AI trend in Q2 2026, and announced revenue backlogs exceed $1.5 trillion.
What required AI revenues signal about enterprise and consumer AI spending: We estimate that AI users would need to spend roughly $1 trillion annually on AI applications in order for the hyperscalers to generate solid returns on investment and the application layer to generate strong profit margins on their compute expenses. This compares with roughly $1.5 trillion in global software spending in 2026 and $1.8 trillion in potential annual US labor productivity gains that our economists estimate will eventually accrue to capital. However, not all of these productivity gains will necessarily accrue to the infrastructure and application layers. AI-related revenues and capex needs would be substantially larger accounting for physical AI or the potential emergence of AGI.
What the AI infrastructure trade is pricing: Many market participants are skeptical about the durability of AI infrastructure stock earnings, and that view is at least partially reflected in market pricing. At current share prices, earnings among some semiconductor stocks would have to decline substantially for the groups to trade in line with their historical average P/E multiples. The hyperscalers also trade at low earnings multiples, and the combination of increasing signs of ROI and the likelihood of decelerating capex growth should be supportive for these stocks.
The AI trade outside of the infrastructure layer: We expect the application layer will remain a source of return dispersion, as reflected by the recent outperformance of data infrastructure and cybersecurity stocks and underperformance of “consumer inertia” stocks. Enterprise adoption is still in early stages but the recent acceleration in enterprise AI spending suggests the impact of AI on corporate earnings should become increasingly visible in coming quarters. Nonetheless, current market-implied long-term growth expectations are only slightly above historical averages.
An update on AI and US equities
Both stocks and investor views relating to the AI trade have been exceptionally volatile during the last few months. Most of the volatility has been concentrated in the AI infrastructure complex, but the latest earnings season also drove sharp moves in the hyperscalers and among software stocks.
Below we address three of the most common AI-related questions we have received from clients in recent weeks:
- 1. What is the outlook for AI capex?
- 2. What revenues are required to generate a sufficient return on recent AI investments?
- 3. What outlook for AI is the equity market pricing?
1. What is the outlook for AI capex?
The largest US hyperscalers are on track to spend $800 billion in capex in 2026 and consensus estimates imply they will spend $1.1 trillion in 2027. Consensus 2027 capex estimates have been revised higher by $175 billion since the start of the Q2 earnings season. Commentary from the hyperscalers during earnings season described a supply-constrained environment and large revenue backlogs, and these factors are driving the companies to tap both debt and equity markets to support additional investment spending. Based on consensus estimates, capex in 2027 is on track to reach a larger share of GDP than any technological investment cycle since the railroad build-out in the late 1800’s.
Our baseline forecast is that hyperscaler capex spending will increase substantially in 2027 but that the rate of both capex growth and upside surprises to consensus estimates will diminish relative to recent quarters. GS equity analysts estimate that hyperscaler capex will register $1.2 trillion in 2027 and $1.4 trillion in 2028. Their estimates are $130 billion and $100 billion above the consensus estimates, respectively, but nonetheless imply a deceleration in capex growth from nearly 100% in 2026 to 54% in 2027 and 12% in 2028.
The need for external financing and potential supply bottlenecks will likely constrain the rate of capex growth next year. Hyperscaler capex spending now exceeds cash flow from operations, which means large further growth will increasingly need funding via debt and equity issuance. While hyperscalers have added leverage, their balance sheets do not appear to be a binding constraint and their interest coverage ratios remain extremely healthy. Our credit strategists instead point to concentration in the investment grade market as the more relevant bottleneck, which will require additional funding from private credit and equity issuance. Potential government restrictions on data center construction or an intentional slowdown in frontier model roll-out could also act as potential constraints on spending, as could shortages of labor, power, memory, or other inputs. Constraints on capex represent a risk to the near-term earnings of AI infrastructure beneficiaries, but could help ease investor concerns about overbuilding.
Going forward, token demand growth will need to outpace declining token prices to support continued growth in investment spending. Frontier models are currently a key source of demand for hyperscaler compute. However, the rise of competitive open-source models has contributed to a decline in average token prices. Measures of frontier token demand slowed in July, simultaneous with sell-offs of many AI infrastructure stocks, but accelerated again in August.
For most AI infrastructure companies, decelerating AI investment spending suggests decelerating EPS growth. AI infrastructure companies, and semis in particular, have been the clearest beneficiaries of the capex surge. Continued upward revisions to consensus 2027 capex estimates should support continued positive revisions to consensus 2027 EPS estimates for many AI infrastructure stocks, but the magnitude of revisions will likely diminish relative to what occurred in H1 2026.
2. What revenues are required to generate a return on AI investments?
Our equity analysts estimate that the hyperscalers would need to generate annual AI revenues of roughly $300 billion in the next few years to break even on their average annual capex investments in 2026 and 2027. These estimates reflect their expectations for average annual AI capex in 2026 and 2027 for the US hyperscalers, including AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL, and SPCX. The breakeven revenues required for this capex represent the sum of annual depreciation and operating expenses. Exhibit 8 provides an estimated sensitivity of required AI revenues the hyperscalers must generate in different return on invested capital (“ROIC”) scenarios. These required revenue estimates are anchored on average annual capex in 2026 and 2027 and would argue for even larger estimates based on cumulative capex.
The hyperscalers’ current estimated AI revenues remain below the amount that would allow them to break even on their capex, but those revenues are growing quickly and revenue backlogs are sizable. The hyperscalers have started to monetize their AI investments. Year/year cloud revenue growth for AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, and ORCL has accelerated from 25% in 2024 to 48% in Q2 2026. In dollar terms, annualized cloud revenues in excess of their 2024 growth rate registered nearly $70 billion in Q2 and have been roughly doubling during the past few quarters. The three major US public cloud companies (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT) have also announced a combined revenue backlog of $1.7 trillion, which provides line of sight into these companies’ ability to meet required revenue targets.
The magnitude of capex in 2026 and 2027 points to even larger “required” annual revenues in the next few years for the “application layer” of companies buying much of that compute from the hyperscalers. These revenues reflect the additional costs and profit margins of application companies on top of the “required” hyperscaler revenues selling compute. EBIT margins for large-cap software companies have averaged 40% during the past five years. We utilize EBIT margins rather than gross margins to include the costs of both training and inference, and assume additional expenses alongside compute. The range of potential required revenues is wide depending on which companies constitute the application layer and how their costs are structured.
Exhibit 11 provides a range of potential “required” revenues based on hyperscaler ROIC and application layer EBIT margins. For example, the application layer would have to generate over $1 trillion in annual revenues if those companies had a 30% EBIT margin and the hyperscalers generated a 10%-20% return on invested capital.
The “required” application layer revenues that would justify current capex are large but potentially achievable. For example, estimates of global advertising and software spending each equal roughly $1.5 trillion in 2026. Our economists estimate that total annual AI US labor productivity gains that will potentially accrue to capital total roughly $1.8 trillion. However, not all of these gains will necessarily accrue to the infrastructure and application layer companies. In addition, another year of strong capex growth in 2028 would raise the hurdle further. AI-related revenues and capex needs would be substantially larger accounting for physical AI or the potential emergence of AGI.
3. What outlook for AI is the equity market pricing?
While market participants express skepticism about the durability of AI infrastructure stocks’ earnings growth, that view is at least partially priced. The median AI infrastructure stock has de-rated from 32x consensus forward earnings in April 2026 to 22x today. In addition to tracking standard P/E multiples, comparing recent changes in market cap to recent changes in earnings can signal how long the market expects current earnings strength to persist. Among various AI infrastructure baskets, that ratio remains most elevated among optical networking, electrical grid, and liquid cooling stocks while expectations appear most conservative among semiconductors and utilities.
Semiconductor valuations appear to embed particularly skeptical views regarding the sustainability of current earnings strength. Valuations have declined sharply among Semis stocks, which is typical among cyclical companies with strong near-term growth but uncertain medium-term growth. We believe the investment opportunity is more compelling in fabless chip stocks than in memory stocks. Our equity analysts are Buy-rated on NVDA and AVGO but Neutral-rated on MU.
Memory stock prices imply earnings will decline in coming years, but the degree of pessimism does not appear particularly extreme relative to past cycles. Memory stocks currently trade at a 2-year forward P/E of 4x, half their 15-year average, but Memory firms currently enjoy gross margins of roughly 80%, more than double their historical average. To bring the current P/E of memory stocks to its 15-year average, earnings in coming years would need to decline by roughly 50%. While this decline is large in absolute terms, memory is a cyclical industry and has experienced larger EPS declines, including outright negative earnings, during previous cycles. This pricing will prove too pessimistic if 2028 forecasts are realized, but many investors have expressed skepticism about rotating back into higher beta pockets of the infrastructure trade as capex growth begins to normalize.
In contrast, the fabless chip stocks also trade at discounted valuations but have had less extreme margin expansion. Margins for the largest fabless chip stocks are only modestly above their historical average. Earnings in the next few years would need to decline by about 10% to bring the P/E back to its historical average. This is similar to the magnitude of historical realized cyclical earnings declines for the group.
The likelihood of decelerating capex growth should be a positive catalyst for the hyperscalers. We previously laid out three conditions for the hyperscalers to regain leadership. These include decelerating macroeconomic growth, demonstrated monetization of AI investment, and decelerating capex growth. Our economists believe US economic growth is no longer accelerating. The hyperscalers have already started to demonstrate signs of monetization, and we expect capex growth will slow in 2027. Uncertainty about the length, magnitude, and return on investment for this capex cycle will likely persist. However, the hyperscalers have de-rated to their lowest P/E multiples in over a decade, and the group now trades just four turns above the median S&P 500 company, its smallest premium on record. While investors have recently been focused more on the hyperscalers’ negative free cash flows than on their earnings, visibility into improving FCF as revenues accelerate and capex decelerates should be supportive for the stocks.
We expect the progression of the AI trade towards application roll-out will remain a source of return dispersion. We believe the “winners” and “losers” from the application layer will take several quarters to play out, as AI applications get built and adoption broadens.
The threat of disruption had weighed on the share prices of many Software stocks earlier this year, but the group has rebounded sharply in recent weeks. Reported Software fundamentals have shown little sign of AI disruption, with annual recurring revenue growth for the median stock in GS analyst coverage accelerating slightly in recent quarters. A group of Software stocks has rallied by 45% and is now within 8% of its high reached in late 2025. Software stocks focused on IT infrastructure and cybersecurity have posted the strongest returns, while enterprise management software remain below their previous highs.
Consumer-facing businesses with high switching costs have also recently emerged as a potential area of disruption. The increasing use of agents, including by new consumer-facing tools such as Muse, may disrupt the business models of some consumer firms. Our colleagues in Global Banking & Markets developed a basket of “consumer inertia” stocks (GSXUSWCH) where user stickiness is driven more by effort required to take action rather than product differentiation. The basket includes insurance, telecom, travel, subscriptions, marketplaces, and fintech. The basket has lagged a sector-neutral hedge by 5 pp since mid-September.
Enterprise AI adoption remains in early stages but spending has recently accelerated, suggesting the impact of AI on corporate earnings should grow increasingly visible in coming quarters. The Census Bureau survey suggests that 40% of large US firms are using AI in the production of goods and services. Our analysis of Q2 earnings commentary suggests roughly 50% of S&P 500 companies are using AI in the context of productivity, but very few companies have quantified the productivity uplift today. However, the revenue run rates of model providers and alternative measures of company spending on AI have accelerated during the last several months alongside the increasing use of agentic harnesses.
In contrast with past periods of market exuberance, the equity market today does not appear to be pricing expectations of widespread productivity gains. Baskets of AI productivity beneficiaries have traded roughly sideways on a relative basis YTD, matching the trajectory of near-term forward EPS estimates. Similarly, the measure of market-implied long-term growth expectations in Exhibit 22 is only slightly above the historical average (for details, see US Equity Views: The next phases of the AI trade).
Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Ryan Hammond, Ben Snider, Daniel Chavez, Kartik Jayachandran and Christophe Sung, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.
Contributing Authors: Ryan Hammond Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Ben Snider Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Daniel Chavez Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Kartik Jayachandran Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Christophe Sung Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed in the Contributing Authors disclosure of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.
Disclosures
Regulatory disclosures
Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; registered market maker. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a principal in debt securities (or in related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report.
The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director or advisor of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading in securities covered by the analysts.
Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for “wholesale clients” within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. In producing research reports, members of Global Investment Research of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the companies and other entities which are the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. To the extent that the contents of this document contains any financial product advice, it is general advice only and has been prepared by Goldman Sachs without taking into account a client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. A client should, before acting on any such advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to the client’s own objectives, financial situation and needs. A copy of certain Goldman Sachs Australia and New Zealand disclosure of interests and a copy of Goldman Sachs’ Australian Sell-Side Research Independence Policy Statement are available at: https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Resolution n. 20 is available at https://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 20 of CVM Resolution n. 20, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: This information is being provided to you for information purposes only and is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, an advertisement, offering or solicitation by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for purchasers of securities in Canada to trade in any Canadian security. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC is not registered as a dealer in any jurisdiction in Canada under applicable Canadian securities laws and generally is not permitted to trade in Canadian securities and may be prohibited from selling certain securities and products in certain jurisdictions in Canada. If you wish to trade in any Canadian securities or other products in Canada please contact Goldman Sachs Canada Inc., an affiliate of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., or another registered Canadian dealer. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited, Research Analyst - SEBI Registration Number INH000001493, 10th Floor, Ascent-Worli, Sudam Kalu Ahire Marg, Worli, Mumbai-400 025, India, Corporate Identity Number U74140MH2006FTC160634, Phone +91 22 6616 9000, Fax +91 22 6616 9001. Goldman Sachs may beneficially own 1% or more of the securities (as such term is defined in clause 2 (h) the Indian Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956) of the subject company or companies referred to in this research report. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited compliance officer and investor grievance contact details, a copy of the annual compliance audit report and other relevant information and disclosures can be found at this link: https://www.goldmansachs.com/worldwide/india/research-analyst. Japan: See below. Korea: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for “professional investors” within the meaning of the Financial Services and Capital Markets Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither “registered banks” nor “deposit takers” (as defined in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for “wholesale clients” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. A copy of certain Goldman Sachs Australia and New Zealand disclosure of interests is available at: https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Research reports do not constitute a personalized investment recommendation as defined in Russian laws and regulations, are not addressed to a specific client, and are prepared without analyzing the financial circumstances, investment profiles or risk profiles of clients. Goldman Sachs assumes no responsibility for any investment decisions that may be taken by a client or any other person based on this research report. Singapore: Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, accepts legal responsibility for this research, and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this research. Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request.
European Union and United Kingdom: Disclosure information in relation to Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) (2016/958) supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council (including as that Delegated Regulation is implemented into United Kingdom domestic law and regulation following the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and the European Economic Area) with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest is available at https://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research.
Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau under registration number Kinsho 69, and a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association, and Investment Management Association of Japan. Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company.
Global product; distributing entities
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; Public Communication Channel Goldman Sachs Brazil: 0800 727 5764 and / or contatogoldmanbrasil@gs.com. Available Weekdays (except holidays), from 9am to 6pm. Canal de Comunicação com o Público Goldman Sachs Brasil: 0800 727 5764 e/ou contatogoldmanbrasil@gs.com. Horário de funcionamento: segunda-feira à sexta-feira (exceto feriados), das 9h às 18h; in Canada by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom.
Goldman Sachs International (“GSI”), authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”) and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and the PRA, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom.
European Economic Area: Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE (“GSBE”) is a credit institution incorporated in Germany and, within the Single Supervisory Mechanism, subject to direct prudential supervision by the European Central Bank and in other respects supervised by German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, BaFin) and Deutsche Bundesbank and disseminates research within the European Economic Area.
General disclosures
This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst’s judgment.
Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (https://www.sipc.org).
Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.
We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, make a market or act as liquidity provider in, and buy or sell, any securities, derivatives, or other financial instruments referred to in this research (including any financial instruments issued by the companies referred to herein), unless otherwise prohibited by regulation or Goldman Sachs policy.
The views attributed to third party presenters at Goldman Sachs arranged conferences, including individuals from other parts of Goldman Sachs, do not necessarily reflect those of Global Investment Research and are not an official view of Goldman Sachs.
Any third party referenced herein, including any salespeople, traders and other professionals or members of their household, may have positions in the products mentioned that are inconsistent with the views expressed by analysts named in this report.
This research is focused on investment themes across markets, industries and sectors. It does not attempt to distinguish between the prospects or performance of, or provide analysis of, individual companies within any industry or sector we describe.
Any trading recommendation in this research relating to an equity or credit security or securities within an industry or sector is reflective of the investment theme being discussed and is not a recommendation of any such security in isolation.
This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.
Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options and futures disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at https://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp and https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/cftc_fcm_disclosures. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request.
Differing Levels of Service provided by Global Investment Research: The level and types of services provided to you by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research may vary as compared to that provided to internal and other external clients of GS, depending on various factors including your individual preferences as to the frequency and manner of receiving communication, your risk profile and investment focus and perspective (e.g., marketwide, sector specific, long term, short term), the size and scope of your overall client relationship with GS, and legal and regulatory constraints. As an example, certain clients may request to receive notifications when research on specific securities is published, and certain clients may request that specific data underlying analysts’ fundamental analysis available on our internal client websites be delivered to them electronically through data feeds or otherwise. No change to an analyst’s fundamental research views (e.g., ratings, price targets, or material changes to earnings estimates for equity securities), will be communicated to any client prior to inclusion of such information in a research report broadly disseminated through electronic publication to our internal client websites or through other means, as necessary, to all clients who are entitled to receive such reports.
All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For research, models or other data related to one or more securities, markets or asset classes (including related services) that may be available to you, please contact your GS representative or go to https://research.gs.com.
Disclosure information is also available at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282.
© 2026 Goldman Sachs.
You are permitted to store, display, analyze, modify, reformat, and print the information made available to you via this service only for your own use. You may not resell or reverse engineer this information to calculate or develop any index for disclosure and/or marketing or create any other derivative works or commercial product(s), data or offering(s) without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. You are not permitted to publish, transmit, or otherwise reproduce this information, in whole or in part, in any format to any third party without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. This foregoing restriction includes, without limitation, using, extracting, downloading or retrieving this information, in whole or in part, to train or finetune a machine learning or artificial intelligence system, or to provide or reproduce this information, in whole or in part, as a prompt or input to any such system.