J.P. Morgan30 September 2026

Equity Technical Chartbook

Technology Keeps the S&P 500 Index in an Uptrend While Other Segments of the Market Struggle to Find Footing

Jason Hunter下载原始 PDF

Now more than halfway through the seasonally weak period, the S&P 500 Index seems to have gotten off easy so far, with the Growth half of that index and the Technology heavy NASDAQ 100 Index attempting to break out from their spring-summer consolidation patterns. On a closing basis, the S&P 500 Index itself defended key support we highlighted in the 7500s. The stair-step to higher prices that has played out through the summer keeps the bullish trend intact for now, despite the loss of momentum near longer-term channel resistance (Figure 1 and Figure 2). Bulls stay in firm control if the market continues to trade above the 7650 Sept 21 bull gap and the nearby 50-day moving average. We continue to point to the area near 7500 as critical short-term trend support. Provided those support levels hold, the door remains open for an extension to the 7922-8052 resistance, which includes the March 2009 monthly channel trend line. Alternatively, the low frequency trend deceleration below longer-term trend resistance in the context of yield curves that have flattened materially and within close proximity to inversion in some cases bears close monitoring. Given the cross-market setup that has unfolded in the latter stages of past cycles, we would react quickly if the S&P 500 breaks 7500, and if that break is a function of cyclical sector breakdowns leading to downside reversals in the currently bid Technology group.
The positive large cap index price pattern is largely driven by the Technology sector’s performance. Market breadth statistics suggest very thin leadership and one just needs to look to the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index and RUSSELL 2000 Index to emphasize that condition (Figure 3 and Figure 5Figure 4). Both markets have remained under steady selling pressure through the bearish September seasonal period, and both indexes are nearing key medium-term support zones near 8300 and 2730, respectively. The equal-weight index has already triggered signals that imply a tentative trend deceleration, which historically has a decent track record of preceding short-term mean reversion to higher prices (Figure 4). However, we would wait for a more convincing base building pattern to develop above support before we would suggest fading weakness in those two markets.
Technology has been the bright spot in September, and something of a lifeboat for equity investors over that period as rising rates and energy prices have pressured other segments of the market. Interestingly, semiconductors and hyperscalers have performed well together at the index/basket level, and the software index has not come under pressure while hardware has rallied (Figure 6, and Figure 11). In recent months, the negative correlation between those groups has been a dominant feature of the market. As we noted in our last update, simultaneous upside breakouts across semiconductors and the hyperscaler names would mark a notable positive for the market and a break from the 1999-2000 analog that has tracked well over the past year. The SOX Index still needs to clear the upper end of its key resistance zone for that positive picture to materialize (13050). Additionally, while the hyperscaler basket has started to break out of its 2026 range, it is important to note that it has largely been driven by the META breakout rally (Figure 7). MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL have not participated in September, so we’d need to see that strength broaden through the group to fully support the broader Technology and Growth breakout attempts noted above (Figure 8, Figure 9, Figure 10).
At the same time, cyclically sensitive sectors have weakened considerably through September, and are now threatening critical medium-term support zones. The Materials sector has already punctured its medium-term trend support (Figure 12), and the Financials and Consumer Discretionary Indexes are within close proximity to their key support zones (Figure 14, Figure 15). As we’ve noted through our summertime updates, weakness in base metals and the associated Materials sector into yearend would mark an important signal for the broader macro setup, as those markets have historically done a good job leading the Global manufacturing PMI data (Figure 13). To that end, we believe it is critical that these cyclically sensitive markets find footing in October and above key support for the broader risk tone to avoid souring into 2027. While the market has been able to rotate into Technology up until this point, we do not think that flow can continue if persistent and impulsive bearish price trends in cyclical markets start to point to a sharp reversal to lower PMI levels in the months ahead.
Lastly, we highlighted that the Energy sector rally looked tired in our last update, as Dec Brent Crude stalled below resistance near 105. The equity sector has since broken down from its price pattern and is now threatening key short-term support at 920-930 (Figure 16). A downside break would imply a more lasting bearish trend reversal in our view, and perhaps relieve some of the pressure across the cyclically sensitive markets noted above.

Broad US Large Cap Rally Intact, but Leadership is Very Thin

Figure 1: The S&P 500 Index effectively held support in the low-7500s, which keeps the index in a continued uptrend for now. Provided that support stays intact, the price pattern on its own merit keeps attention fixed on potential targets in the 7922-8052 area...

Figure 2:...Longer-term channel resistance that extends from the 2009 GFC bear market low defines the upper end of that resistance zone. Despite the intact uptrend, the rally has decelerated considerably through the summer below that trend resistance, and importantly, as the yield curve has flattened. That combination historically has lined up with a late-cycle environment...

Figure 3:...Leadership has also thinned materially, especially during this last rebound in late-September. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has a very different chart as a result, which has come under steady selling pressure through the bearish seasonal period. The index is closing in on key medium-term support now...

Figure 4:...There are some tentative short-term trend deceleration pattern formations, signals that historically have led to rebounds in the weeks ahead. We don’t yet see a definitive reversal pattern that would favor fading the laggard weakness, but we will watch for that near the Jan-Apr range highs/springtime breakout zone.

Figure 5: The RUSSELL 2000 Index has a similar chart setup as equally-weighted large cap indexes, which are also approaching a key support zone in the 2700s. In our view, the key differentiating factor for small caps is the more developed distribution pattern that now sits overhead. Even if the market bounces from the 2725-2777 support zone, persistent price action below resistance in the 2900s would see the chart retain a bearish medium-term bias.

Large Cap Technology Trades Well; Groups That Have Been Technically Vulnerable are Now Pressuring Key Resistance Levels

Figure 6: The SOX Index rebound has extended deep into the 12362-13047 key resistance zone we’ve monitored through the summer. Tactically, and until a clear downside reversal pattern forms, the group keeps a positive trend bias while above the 11869-12016 50-day moving average and short-term range breakout. Bulls still need to clear the 13050 level in a sustained way to suggest the correction phase is over. Such a breakout would be a more meaningful positive signal in our view if it is accompanied by range breakouts across the hyperscaler names...

Figure 7: Most recently, META is the only name in that group to see a bullish impulse and clear breakout from the Apr-Sep trading range. That chart keeps a bullish trend bias now as long as it holds above the 655-692 area...

Figure 8:...MSFT squeezed higher with the broader software group in August, but has since stalled. The deceleration in price action leaves the group vulnerable to a setback. Tactical support rests at 477-486. Bulls would fumble with a break below 465-466...

Figure 9:...AMZN also saw a summer attempt to break out, but that move stalled near the 283 Aug 2025 channel and the stock has since pulled back toward the 235-241 support area. We will watch for signs of base building near that support, but don’t see meaningful signs of that yet...

Figure 10: …GOOGL has skidded sideways in a tightening coil through the summer, below 381 resistance and above critical medium-term support at 290-306. The chart carries a neutral near-term bias. A downside break would mark a potentially meaningful medium-to longer-term bearish signal.

Figure 11: The negative correlation between semiconductors and software that dominated in recent months has at least temporarily disappeared in September, as investors have crowded into the broader Technology group. The late-summer price action still looks like a potential distribution pattern following the second spring-summer short squeeze. As such, bullish market participants should pay close attention to key pattern support at 7706-7746. A downside break would leave the group vulnerable to a sizable setback.

Leading Cyclicals Under Pressure

Figure 12: We’ve focused on Materials as a potential vulnerable sector in recent months given the weak performance across most base metals. The S&P 500 sector index has now fallen through key trend support. Bears keep the agenda while below 641 and 648-654 resistance levels. The setup keeps our attention on key medium-term support at 583-593...

Figure 13:...Similar to the relationships between base metals and the Global manufacturing PMI data we’ve shown recently, bearish Materials equity performance in the fourth quarter would represent a material risk for the broader industrial production cycle heading into early 2027. On regression, even if the equity group trades sideways over that period, the PMI risks retracing a portion of the multi-quarter data trend.

Figure 14: The S&P 500 Financials Sector Index approaches an important cluster of support at 875-885 after fading from rally objectives in the mid-to upper-900s and staying under steady pressure through the bearish seasonal period. We will watch for potential signs of base building near that support into October, but see no signs of that yet. Look for the 935-950 breakdown area as a material resistance zone if a bounce develops.

Figure 15: The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index has moved into the lower end of the yearlong trading range. The group keeps a negative trend bias while below the 1882-1903 resistance zone. We suggest waiting for a clear base pattern to develop above range support near 1700 before looking to fade weakness in this sector.

Energy Rally Stalls

Figure 16: In our last equity update, we highlighted the potential short-term pattern on the S&P 500 Energy sector chart that suggested bullish trend exhaustion. The group has since broken down from that pattern and has backed up to key short-term support at 920-930. A downside break below that zone would imply a more lasting bearish trend reversal, with next support at 882, then 842...

Figure 17:...Dec Brent Crude has also stalled its rally below a cluster of resistance near 105, but that chart lacks a clear top pattern formation at this point. In the absence of that pattern, bears would need to break 91.83-93.68 support to gain material traction and reinforce a negative equity sector outlook for the fourth quarter. Next support rests at the 85-90 late-summer breakout zone.

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