STRAP YOURSELF IN...

Barron’s cover — September 7, 2026

“THE NEW RULES FOR BONDS”

”The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is creating portfolio risks. Where to seek safety now.”

Cover story:

“The Death of the Safe Haven: How to Fix Your Bond Strategy as Yields Rise”

When was the last time a cover story proclaimed the death of an asset class?

Memories…

That cover was published after stocks did nothing for a decade:

Now Bonds have done nothing for a decade… and they’ve been proclaimed dead:

What if Bonds aren’t dead… just resting?

Have a great week ahead!

FLOWS & POSITIONING

Positioning extremes:

• Net-long extreme: Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum) · Corn · Gasoline · S&P
• Net-short extreme: SOFR · TY · VIX · FV · US

Visualizing the extremes across markets:

• S&P positioning remains extended at 92th percentile.
• VIX positioning remains near the lowest in history.
• Rates positioning remains extremely low across the entire curve. SOFR is at an ALL-TIME RECORD short.
• Industrial Metals positioning is extremely crowded.
• Gasoline positioning is extremely crowded.
• Grains positioning is approaching historical extremes (has a bit more room).
• FX positioning remains crowded long U.S. Dollar (92 percentile).

POSITIONING HIGHLIGHTS

Nasdaq positioning is crowded again:

Russell positioning remains near the lowest ever:

Rates positioning remains near extreme lows for the entire curve.

SOFR positioning is at an ALL-TIME RECORD LOW:

Ten-Year remains near historic lows:

Gasoline is more crowded than the 2022 TOP — and other significant tops throughout history. If Gasoline tops in this range, what happens to Rates?

VIX positioning remains crowded short:

SUMMARY:

1. 1. Funds are extremely Long S&P, Nasdaq, Industrial Metals, Gasoline, and the Dollar.
2. 2. Funds are extremely Short Russell, Bonds, and VIX.

Staying disciplined — focusing only on the BEST risk-reward setups.

Into later September-October, positioning looks like a MINE FIELD with a lot of economic data, monetary policy, and election catalysts on the calendar.

Avoid crowded trades wherever possible…

CRITICAL CHARTS, LEVELS & SCENARIOS

Core Risk is building momentum again. Maybe there’s room to get overbought one more time as September progresses? Would be a solid setup if this were to happen. Let’s see how this plays out…

A packed calendar ahead:

• SEP 10 — PPI + ORCL/ADBE earnings
• SEP 11 — CPI
• SEP 16 — FOMC meeting + VIX futures expiration
• SEP 18 — BOJ meeting + OPEX

The range seems likely to continue for now, with rotations dominating:

SPY stopped at the Bull Flag channel resistance. Two lower gaps: at $765 and $757 (where the 50d has now caught up). Tracking the outcome of this consolidation will be essential. Will be updating via daily notes & signal watch:

Near-term, continue to think both sides of the range could get tested.

Discipline over conviction, no forced trades.

QQQ closed the $717 gap and has an upside gap at $730 (NDX 30,000) which could still be in play near-term. The $700 gap could also get tested as part range trading. For now, continue to operate with Tech rotating between MAG7, Software, and AI/Semis:

Russell held important support:

Russell’s relative performance may have bottomed:

Related, the pullback in KRE may be mostly finished (watch for base-building):

Remember:

Small caps led the indexes this year, now they’re oversold, in a standard pullback, and fund positioning is extremely Short.

This could be a solid opportunity developing — watching for stabilization in this range (will update).

Semiconductors may be turning tactically higher.

Near-term, the 50d/downtrend line at ~$575 seems likely for this week — and will be an important test:

SMH/SPY relative performance may be stabilizing, but needs more work:

In the portfolio section, we’ll cover notable stocks showing clear & asymmetric setups.

VOLATILITY

Rates and Equity volatility remain stable for now, an important driver of risk.

If volatility begins to turn higher, we will adjust accordingly.

We’ll be tracking for any signs of a turn in real-time, and updating via daily notes:

Markets have digested the move in Rates for now, because it has been slow and steady/”orderly”.

If Rates speed up (get disorderly), then Rates volatility could become a critical driver of risk for all assets... watching it closely.

VIX broke <14 this week, a level where it bottomed twice in the last year — monitoring for a potential turn:

VIX sentiment is near bottoming range:

This could print an extreme low at any moment — perhaps this week (will update):

Volatility Clock:

Stocks have gone 27 days without a 1% decline. We’ll get more concerned if this reaches 30-40 range. Historically, after these levels were reached, the first down day tended to signal a TACTICAL shift in market volatility (will update):

Despite us being constructive for now, there are signs from other asset markets that we may be approaching extremes for this cycle:

Here is a timely chart from my friends at 36 South Capital Advisors:

If we’re looking for medium-term vulnerabilities on the horizon, this could be one of them…

36 South posted a recent video on some of the extremes that are starting to register — for those interested, their presentation is here.

Last but not least, similar to Volatility, Credit Spreads remain low — but still constructive for now:

As I wrote this week:

• ✅ To get a bigger risk-off, volatility should roll-up from low levels — maybe after OPEX, when positive gamma is cleared.
• ✅ VIX and VVIX are extremely low, but it can sometimes take 1-2 weeks to turn up with clear signals.
• ✅ If this happens, it would create an optimal scenario to add Hedges, precisely when momentum begins to turn.

METALS

Gold is consolidating between support/resistance, while the rising 50d gradually catches up to price:

Silver remains in a range, with the 50d now at $62:

GDX is consolidating after a small bounce at the 20d. This should ideally resolve to the upside, to targets in the $107-115 range. Watching the trend and holding positions for now:

GDX relative strength vs. Gold remains key to watch here — so far, it remains constructive.

I remain laser-focused on tracking this opportunity as far as it goes.

Will update as signals develop, and new setups emerge (maybe there’s an opportunity to ADD into a September roll-up — TBD).

Copper is consolidating near the highs — still constructive, but we want to continue focusing on Precious Metals due to the positioning gap (Industrial Metals remain crowded):

RATES

Heading into arguably THE most important week of the year for Rates…

The whole world will be watching this week’s inflation data, Rates positioning is at/near record lows across the entire curve, a magazine has proclaimed the Death of Bonds, and Yields are testing critical levels.

Strap yourself in… this week could be one for the history books.

The 2YR is at big resistance:

The 5YR is approaching resistance:

The 10YR is at big resistance:

The 30YR continues to build a notable divergence, as it makes lower highs at the breakout area. Note the 50d almost catching up to the line at 5.20%. If the 30YR turns down here, it would remove a lot of pressure from other markets:

As before, if Bond prices head lower (Yields a bit higher), Sentiment would push to historic extremes, setting up a major turn. It may already be sufficiently oversold here, but we’ll see what happens:

Remember: the consensus view is that Rates can only go up… and “The Death of The Safe Haven” is now a cover story.

THE DOLLAR

Dollar positioning barely changed this week, and remains extremely elevated:

Near-term (below), if DXY tests $100 it would offer an extremely asymmetric Sell setup:

Big picture: if this bounce fails, it could lead to the Dollar breaking its long-term channel — and moving to significantly lower targets.

Because of this, think it’s critical to stay focused on identifying a buyable dip in Precious Metals/Miners and Bitcoin over the coming days/weeks.

USDJPY is testing critical support — a breakdown seems like the path of least resistance here:

Continue to think USDJPY has formed a Major Top, and is in the early stages of a multi-month decline (or more).

Monitoring for a clear and asymmetric Short entry — will update.

The next BOJ rate decision will be September 18, two days after the Fed meeting.

OIL & ENERGY

Oil is in a tactical uptrend, but remains below its July high:

Energy momentum remains a top focus — this week MAY have been a Bull Trap, setting up for a big reversal (pending confirmation):

As before, if a bigger top is forming in this range, it could look quite similar to 2022.

Monitoring closely for confirmation, and will update with priority:

If Energy turns lower, Rates would have a strong catalyst to follow.

Maybe Bonds aren’t dead… just waiting.

Stay flexible/ready — this could be a big setup coming soon.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin continues to deserve special attention here.

BTC is following the ideal sequence with room to test the May high:

As discussed last week, BTC may have started a new Bull Market — and may be following the 2023 sequence.

Here is another important comparison:

BTC could also be an important “early signal” for all risk assets here.

BTC could be one of the leaders of the next rally phase — perhaps THE leader, if a new BTC Bull Market is starting…

I’ll be watching and updating it with strong interest.

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS

The Portfolio Holdings page has been updated here.

PORTFOLIO NOTES

Staying disciplined as we enter September, focusing only on the VERY BEST setups.

No forced trades — let the market come to us:

• ✅ Looking for new opportunities, and moving more capital into potential leadership.
• ✅ Paying especially close attention to new leaders in Health Care, Materials, Rates-sensitives, and Cyclicals here.
• ✅ If the market gets choppier, watch what’s holding up the best…

CHART HIGHLIGHTS & TOP SCANS

CONSTRUCTIVE / LEADERSHIP POTENTIAL:

If MAG7 can continue to make progress here, it will be an important support for the whole market:

As noted this week, Memory stocks were coiled for a big move.

Friday was the initial breakout:

Many Semiconductor and AI-related stocks are showing clear asymmetric setups:

A complete reference list:

It’s all about the risk/reward equation here:

All of these have manageable/tight risk-control setups, with potential significant upside IF a turn is developing.

Last but not least:

Other notable setups on CLOSE WATCH for this week:

FINAL THOUGHTS

September is underway:

• ✅ Heading into arguably THE most important week of the year for Rates…
• ✅ The whole world will be watching this week’s inflation data, Rates positioning is at/near record lows across the entire curve, a magazine has proclaimed the Death of Bonds, and Yields are testing critical levels.
• ✅ Strap yourself in… this week could be one for the history books.
• ✅ Into later September-October, positioning looks like a MINE FIELD with a lot of economic data, monetary policy, and election catalysts on the calendar.
• ✅ Volatility/Credit will be key signals to watch.

Staying disciplined — no forced trades.

Let the market show the way, then respond without emotion or hesitation.

Good luck this week.

Thanks for reading.

Onwards and upwards, -MC

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