S&P 500 Leading Indicator, Insiders Action, Equity Supply & Investment Themes by Decades = Maverick Equities Charts of the Week #57

As you all know, it is a Realist-Optimist doing the independent research here, hence humanity will continue to make progress, economies will evolve and financial markets will just reflect and price all that by going up over the medium-long term!

Yet, with this occasion I will highlight some rather cautious-bearish, yet key points:

1. First of all, introducing the 1st Maverick S&P 500 Leading Proprietary Indicator:

• it did catch very nicely the last 3 major market peaks over the last 3 decades — shown in the chart as the red shaded areas corresponding to equity drawdowns:

1. 2001 Dot-com bubble
2. 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
3. 2022 bear market

• 49 now, it has to cross 60 first for the signal to be very strong.
• After it has to invert, and once inverted 3-9 months from there.

Takeaway

In the current cycle it did not cross 60, and lately it even reversed from 54 to 49, hence it is not flashing red, but more like an overvaluation warning sign for now.

N.B. indicator is NOT the Yield Curve, but has to invert like it … and like Maverick in Top Gun, hence only AFTER it is ‘flipping the birdie’ — pun intended 😉!

N.B. there also other indicators, and confidence increases materially when more and more independent signals start to align.

2. What are U.S. Corporate Insiders doing lately, buying or selling their own stock?

• Sold $77.6 billion during the 1st half of 2026, a 20% increase from a year ago!
• The only time the selling spree was more intense was back in the 2021 stock market mania …
• Big time selling from the insiders can also just mean them diversifying their human capital with financial capital. I can’t blame them at all for that. I and most of us, I guess, would do similarly these days given the massive rally we had in the last years, especially as some high beta momentum names went parabolic for no real fundamental reason. There is a lot of casino behaviour in the markets these days.

Takeaway

I see this as a bearish sign on the back of current high valuations — and not as a sign of panic selling which would be a different way more concerning story.

3. Net Equity Supply Is Positive Again = meaning companies issuing stock, paired to less stock buybacks:

• Last time it happened was in the 2021 stock market mania & 2009 GFC.
• Nowadays Wall Street is creating a lot of supply for all the AI demand.

Takeaway

More stock issued & less stock buybacks signal a market with stretched valuations.

4. Equity Issuance standalone

• Q2 was a record quarter.
• Higher even than during the 2021 stock market mania.

Takeaway

Record stock issuance, especially as SPACs are back big time, also indicate a market with stretched valuations.

Bonus: Investment Themes by Decades

Investment Themes by Decades & their Returns!

• Nifty 50 until 1970 = 645%
• EM & Commodities until 1980 = 1,259%
• Japanese Stocks until 1990 = 527%
• U.S. Tech until 2000 = 795%
• EM & Commodities 2.0 until 2010 = 381%
• U.S. Tech 2.0 until 2020 = 737%
• Current U.S. American Tech 3.0 with AI = a whooping … drum rolls … 3,033%

Food for thought … thoughts?

P.S. next Maverick Special research reports will cover the two mighty AI questions:

Is AI in Bubbly Territory?

AI & Jobs – The Ultimate Question & Conundrum

As well, on the AI CAPEX big cycle we are having currently I am working on 2 Maverick proprietary indicators/indices that would capture the 2 key aspects:

• AI ROI on CAPEX (a quantitative objective gauge)
• AI Sentiment (a qualitative, mood gauge)

Sentiment is very high and investments have gone parabolic in the AI space, hence:

• a rigorous oversight of capital conversion efficiency is necessary to gauge the AI ecosystem’s capacity for sustained growth and ability to translate all that into corporate financial returns
• similarly, for the overall economy, it’s growth and potential going forward

Both the qualitative and quantitative gauges are essential to map the current trend and cycle position, allowing us to forecast the eventual stabilization, subsequent market correction (shakeout), and the identification of long-term sustainable winners.

Maverick Charts 57th edition done, 4 key charts with many insights + 1 Bonus!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then we all do well here!