Technology Key Debates

Positioning through the AI cycle – compute first, networking second, memory selective

AI spending – still rising, but growth is peaking

Following the secular playbook – AI leadership should broaden from the maker of AI to the user of AI

Rotation within semis since end-June: out of memory and WFE and into AI compute and quality

Global semiconductor revenues – can growth continue to accelerate?

Technology cycles within cycles – first-in, first-out (Y/Y)

Earnings revisions – divergence

Memory – Changing tides: three debates framing the cycle

Samsung – The world’s most profitable company, but the market doesn’t seem to believe in the outer numbers

Memory earnings revisions breadth is rolling over and multiple de-rating

Pricing moderating and inventory inflecting higher

LTAs drive higher FCF but no re-rating

Memory leadership – how can incumbents react to China’s advance?

China is spending to be self-sufficient – CXMT and YMTC lift 2027F capex by 60–67%

NAND: YMTC supply vs. demand scenario analysis

HBM revenue is set to triple to ~US$200bn in 2027

Samsung is set to regain HBM share leadership in 2027; HBM4 ASP more than double

HBM bit shipments by generation: Samsung vs. SK hynix

HBM technology roadmap

DRAM cell architectures: 6F², 4F² and 3D-DRAM

AI transitions from ‘generation’ to ‘autonomous’ action in agentic AI

AI agent architecture – CPU orchestration, memory and GPU execution

CPU is the new bottleneck in agentic AI

Agentic AI opportunity – sizing the CPU and memory TAM

Exposure to the AI agent theme

AI chip value chain – China vs. the US – a decoupling of AI compute

ABF Substrates: We are entering the AI diffusion era

We forecast 2026 GB200/300 racks to be 80-90k

ABF Substrates: Undersupply from 2027

MLCCs: Tiny but mighty

AI servers require more MLCCs as power delivery architectures evolve

VR200 MLCC content is 180%+ higher compared to GB300

The MLCC industry is highly consolidated – top 5 account for 87% of global MLCC market

AI is emerging as a key growth driver for the MLCC industry

MLCC fundamentals are inflecting

Valuation comparison

Valuation Comparison