RV Entry-Level Equity Portfolio #31

Introduction

This portfolio and commentary are for educational purposes only. It reflects how I personally approach markets — combining technical structure, sentiment, and macro context, all built from 20 years of trial, error, and refinement — but I’m not a qualified investment advisor, and while some of the ideas discussed may be actionable, the true value lies in understanding the process behind the trades — and not in chasing specific entries or exits.

That being said, this has been an awfully dynamic week in markets, so let’s get into it!

—JB

Markets

The week beginning the 17th of August opened with renewed pressure on risk assets as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran returned to the headlines. Oil moved sharply higher while long-term Treasury yields continued their advance, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007. Technology came under particular pressure, with semiconductors leading the way, as investors once again contemplated the effects of higher energy prices, inflation and rising borrowing costs. However, given the strength of the advance off the lows, some retracement was to be expected.

Selling continued into Tuesday as hopes for progress in the Middle East faded, pushing oil and yields higher still. Semiconductors again led the decline, dragging the Nasdaq lower as investors reduced exposure to some of the strongest-performing and longest-duration areas of the market.

Wednesday then brought a significant change following the U.S. Treasury's announcement that it would more than double the size of its buybacks of longer-dated government debt. Long-term yields reversed sharply lower; the dollar weakened, and equities initially recovered.

By announcing the buybacks, the Treasury effectively messaged that if long bond yields continue to rise above these levels, there will be intervention, and this can serve to create a psychological cap, at least over the short term. But most importantly for assets, this means more liquidity, and the most liquidity-sensitive asset class of all, crypto, rallied hard on the news. Initially, the standout performer of the layer 1s was ETH, which saw gains of around 20% over the following 24 hours.

In contrast, equities remained weak as the VIX started to creep higher.

Strength began to return on Friday, with equities recovering from their lows as volatility eased. Overall, the week highlighted the continuing battle between geopolitical and inflation concerns on one side and increasingly active attempts to contain tightening financial conditions on the other.

OIL

Oil is back at the upper boundary of the short-term trend channel once more, but the move so far has not been strong enough to push through. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward and whether we get one more move lower.

DXY

Although the dollar has been weaker since the last update, it is still resting on the support of its secular trendline. So far, the move has not been enough to create a decisive breakdown, but a clearer picture of its future direction should appear soon.

US30Y

Long-term rates are still hovering at levels the market views as uncomfortably high. The big question now is whether rates will reach a new ATH — and if they do, what will be the policy response?

VIX

The VIX is currently moving sideways rather than breaking down further, making short term predictions unclear. However, if the indices can continue their rallies, volatility should fall further still.

SPX

The SPX has been working off its recently overbought condition but now appears ready to continue to new highs.

US100

Former resistance is still support until price breaks down back into the channel; so far, it's still looking constructive.

DOW

The uptrend in the Dow continues, and the latest move to the lower boundary has again been met with accumulation.

BTC

BTC staged an impressive rally last week due to a combination of short covering and renewed institutional appetite. The move was accompanied by an increase in relative volume, also increasing the probability that there may be more to come.

Macro:

The Latest MIT report states clearly the case for a continued risk-on bias into 2027, reinforcing the message of continued market participation in assets that are designed to express a mid-cycle macro regime.

GMI total liquidity is moving to new ATH’s, and this is providing a powerful tailwind behind the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq has a 97.5% correlation with this index and follows liquidity with a 3-month lag.

This chart shows the time lag and highlights the road map with the expected seasonal volatility. It also helps to calm any worries of a crash as over time both liquidity and the Nasdaq continue to trend higher.

A.I. MIT Business Cycle Summary, Aug 24th, 2026:

The latest MIT update remains constructive on the broader liquidity cycle but highlights an important shift in the policy backdrop. The US Treasury has begun increasing its intervention at the long end of the yield curve, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubling the size of the recent buyback operation and indicating that current levels represent a floor rather than a ceiling. MIT views this emerging “Bessent put” as potentially significant, suggesting that the Treasury is beginning to play a much greater role in controlling liquidity and broader financial conditions.

The bond market has so far remained skeptical, with longer-term yields staying elevated despite the intervention. However, MIT argues that successful downward pressure on yields would eventually become supportive for the business cycle, with changes in the 10-year yield historically leading ISM manufacturing activity by around 15 months. The US dollar remains another important indicator, and, despite the potential for a near-term rebound following its recent decline, the broader trend is still expected to remain lower.

Liquidity conditions also remain broadly supportive. Global liquidity is close to all-time highs, while its year-on-year rate of change has recently begun to improve following several months of moderation. US liquidity remains more subdued, but MIT expects this to strengthen as Treasury intervention and increasingly supportive policy begin to feed through into financial conditions.

The combination of elevated liquidity levels and an improving rate of change provides a potentially favorable backdrop for risk assets as the cycle progresses.

The report is somewhat more cautious toward crypto in the short term. Bitcoin has recently diverged from liquidity conditions, suggesting that price may have temporarily moved ahead of its underlying macro support. MIT does not view this as evidence that the broader cycle is over, but believes further confirmation is required before becoming more aggressive, with lower yields, a weaker dollar and improving liquidity potentially providing the catalysts for the next advance.

Overall, the report remains constructive but acknowledges that the transition toward easier financial conditions is not yet complete. Treasury intervention, a structurally weaker dollar and global liquidity near record highs continue to support the longer-term outlook, while September could remain volatile as markets test policymakers' willingness to bring longer-term yields under control. The setup for the next phase of the liquidity cycle continues to build, but confirmation from the bond market is still required.

— A.I. end

Portfolio:

The positions in the portfolio have been chosen specifically to align with the two macro cycles we are trading. The first being the end of the business cycle late 2026-early 2027, and the second into 2032 at the end of the generational super cycle. The header sections for the trade ideas are to help clarify the time horizon and cycle expression. This will highlight how long I plan to hold the positions, the part of the cycle they are designed to capture, and the extent to which they will need active management.

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The estimates below are intended purely as a visual representation, so we do need to give them a certain degree of artistic freedom. Additionally, estimates assume that the cycle runs into early 2027. Macro developments could change this as markets progress.

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Current Base Case:

The current macro summer positioning of the economic recovery supports the argument for continued exposure to the above assets.

Portfolio Performance Snapshot

As of 8/21/2026

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The above chart offers a visual representation of the current allocations. I am not aiming for set percentages but will maintain stability in the portfolio with positions such as SMT, UNH, and AMZN.

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. (SMT.L)

Bought on 8th April 2025. Price: £8.52.

Time Horizon: Core Position into 2030-32

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Equity Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Industrials, Financials.

Style Factors: High Beta, Growth.

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

Full of growth stocks, Scottish Mortgage should perform well this year as financial conditions continue to improve. Still trading at a 10% discount to its NAV, with its price still on the lower trend line and coming off its most oversold condition in decades, it should be one to hold onto for the long term and give the portfolio a solid foundation. As interest rates ease and the economy expands, it should come back into favor with investors.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: SMT is the main anchor to the portfolio and is holding up well, just as expected. I am not in the least bit concerned with this position at present, as it is doing its job perfectly. We just need the stock to stay between the trend lines, and we have a great position that should keep growing over time. I cannot see this trend breaking down unless we go into some serious, broad-based issues with the asset markets in general. The biggest issue with this position going forward will most likely be boredom, as it has much lower volatility than our other positions.

Quarterly chart 08/26/2026

Price action is still trending higher within the channel, and therefore I am maintaining a long-term constructive stance. (08/26/2026)

Amazon (AMZN)

Bought on 11th April 2025. Price: $181.22.

Time Horizon: Core Position into 2030-32

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Technology, Internet Retail

Style Factors: Large Cap, Growth

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

Being a high-quality, large-cap technology company with deep integrations into the consumer economy, AMZN should respond positively as we move through the expansionary phase of the macro cycle. The latest period of volatility has not done anything to change the long-term trajectory of the stock price, which is heading higher in an exponential fashion. It will add another solid foundational layer to the portfolio.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: AMZN continues to advance within its long-term trend channel and remains one of the portfolio's core technology holdings. The position provides exposure to improving liquidity conditions and broad-based participation in the technology sector while maintaining a constructive multi-year price structure.

Quarterly chart 08/26/2026

AMZN is beginning to move higher after a successful retest of channel support. Price action is now looking stronger on the quarterly time frame, which is great to see.

Constructive outlook maintained. (08/26/2026).

Tesla (TSLA)

Bought on 8th April 2025. Price: $222.96

Time Horizon: Strategic position into the end of this liquidity cycle (Est: Late 2026 – Early 2027)

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Equity Sectors: Technology, Industrials, Green Energy.

Style Factors: High Beta, Growth.

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

Being a technology, high beta, growth play, Tesla is well positioned as we move towards a regime of looser financial conditions. In terms of liquidity, things are now heading in the right direction with global M2 and Central Bank Net Liquidity presenting bullish continuation patterns. For the position to really gain traction, however, investor and consumer sentiment need to increase again. But I think we should see that as the ISM moves back above 50 and interest rate pressures begin to ease.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: TSLA continues to hold its long-term trend structure and remains one of the portfolio's highest conviction technology positions. The company provides exposure to innovation, robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence themes while benefiting from improving liquidity conditions and a constructive multi-year price structure.

Monthly chart 08/26/2026

Daily chart 08/26/2026

The move higher from the July low appears to be more corrective than impulsive, and this means we need to be prepared for a retracement and a potential new low. 78% retracement would be fitting if this occurs. (08/26/2026).

Transocean (RIG)

Bought on the 6th of February 2026. Price: $5.39.

Time Horizon: Strategic Position into 2027+

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Sector: Energy Services, Offshore Drilling

Style Factors: Mid Cap, Cyclical, High Beta

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

Transocean sits at the far end of the global energy supply curve, where years of underinvestment have created structural scarcity. As energy security becomes increasingly strategic rather than purely economic, offshore drilling stands to benefit from improving utilization and pricing power. RIG typically performs later in the cycle and can often run across multiple sub-cycles once conditions turn supportive. Within the portfolio, it acts as both a late-cycle opportunity and an effective hedge against international geopolitical stress.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: The Elliott Wave labels demonstrate how I am thinking about the price action from a structural perspective. The move up from the Covid lows was wave 1, while the April Trump tariff volatility represented wave 2. Price should now be entering either a 3rd wave advance or a C-wave higher. Both outcomes remain constructive for a long position, and I am looking forward to seeing how the structure develops from here.

Monthly chart 08/26/2026

RIG has advanced a little and is beginning to move away from the support of the trendline. It's nothing exciting, but the test of that important zone appears as if it was successful at least for now.

The long-term structure is still intact, with a potential turn at a former resistance area now unfolding. (08/26/2026).

Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)

Bought on the 6th of February 2026. Price: $11.68.

Time Horizon: Strategic Position into 2026–28

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Sector: Consumer Discretionary, Sporting Goods

Style Factors: Mid Cap, Value / Cyclical

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

Although often categorized emotionally, SWBI trades structurally like a consumer discretionary stock. Demand responds to liquidity, confidence, and behavioral shifts rather than technological narratives. As financial conditions improve, discretionary spending tends to recover, while periods of domestic uncertainty can provide an additional demand backstop. This dual nature allows SWBI to participate in reflation while offering portfolio resilience should confidence fracture.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: The moves in SWBI appear to align closely with the liquidity cycle, with breakouts occurring near cyclical lows followed by advances into the later stages of the cycle. It is a slower-moving position that I am monitoring primarily on the quarterly timeframe.

Quarterly chart 08/26/2026

SWBI has been retreating, but this has been nothing dramatic or concerning and looks to be normal corrective behavior.

The position continues to behave as expected. (08/26/2026).

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Bought on the 1st of April 2026. Price: $270.59.

Time Horizon: Core Position into 2028–30

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Sector: Healthcare, Managed Care

Style Factors: Large Cap, Quality / Defensive Growth

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

UnitedHealth operates a large healthcare platform combining insurance with a growing data and services division through Optum. This model provides stable, recurring revenues alongside exposure to long-term drivers such as ageing populations and rising healthcare demand.

Unlike cyclical sectors, UNH benefits from consistent demand, making it less dependent on macro timing and more on execution and scale. During volatility, capital often rotates toward high-quality earnings, supporting relative outperformance.

Within the portfolio, UNH provides stability against higher-beta positions, helping smooth performance during market uncertainty. While unlikely to lead in speculative phases, it remains important for diversification and capital preservation as the cycle develops.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: UNH has rebounded strongly from its secular trend channel and regained a constructive footing once again. As a defensive mega-cap, it should offer stability to the portfolio, while the purchase at a multi-decade inflection point provides a meaningful margin of safety should broader market corrections emerge.

Monthly chart 08/26/2026

UNH is looking like it is easing off a little after the strong performance of the last several months. With the choppy consolidation period now behind the markets, this makes sense considering its defensive nature. Our entry is much lower, and a retracement should be easily absorbed, provided the current trend remains intact.

No real change since the last update, so the paragraph above still holds relevance.

No concerns at present. (08/26/2026).

Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP)

Bought on the 26th of June 2026. Price: $130.05.

Time Horizon: Core Position into 2028–30

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Sector: Cybersecurity, Enterprise Software

Style Factors: Large Cap, Quality / Defensive Growth

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

Check Point is a global cybersecurity leader providing network, cloud, and endpoint security solutions to enterprise customers. Its subscription-based business model generates highly recurring revenues, supported by strong cash generation and a long history of disciplined capital allocation.

As digital infrastructure continues to expand through AI adoption and increasing cloud connectivity, cybersecurity remains a structural growth market. Unlike many higher-growth software companies, Check Point combines resilient earnings with attractive valuation characteristics, making it less reliant on aggressive multiple expansion during periods of market volatility.

Within the portfolio, CHKP provides defensive technology exposure, helping balance higher-beta growth holdings while maintaining participation in the long-term digital infrastructure theme. Its quality characteristics and stable cash flows make it a suitable core holding as the business cycle continues to develop.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: A retreat to the secular trendline is positioning CHKP favorably for renewed interest from investors looking to restart accumulation. From a technical perspective, the positioning is as attractive now as it was in 2008, allowing for entry at a cyclical low. What I really like about this setup is that the asset has already bounced off the trendline in May, and the latest pullback allows for this level to be used as a trading entry pivot. The recent relative strength in software is also suggesting capital is beginning to flow more broadly into the sector, offering a valuable tailwind to the position. Additionally, being a high-quality large cap with a reasonable valuation should help with its appeal in a market still selectively positioning in growth assets.

Weekly chart 08/26/2026

Daily chart 08/26/2026

CHKP has stabilized after gapping lower, but the price action so far suggests it is still finding its footing. In the event of further downside, support from the secular channel is not far beneath current levels and should encourage further accumulation if reached. (08/26/2026).

Five9 Inc. (FIVN)

Bought on the 2nd of June 2026. Price: $23.44.

Time Horizon: Core Position into 2028–30

Macroeconomic Tailwinds:

Sector: Cloud Software, AI Customer Experience (CX)

Style Factors: Mid Cap, Quality Growth / Software

Current Bias/Strategy Note:

Five9 provides cloud-based contact center software, enabling businesses to manage customer interactions across voice, chat, email, and digital channels. Its subscription-based business model generates highly recurring revenues, while increasing adoption of artificial intelligence continues to enhance productivity and improve customer engagement.

As financial conditions improve and enterprise capital expenditure recovers, software spending should gradually broaden beyond the largest technology companies. Five9 is well positioned to benefit from this trend through continued migration to cloud communications and growing demand for AI-powered customer service solutions.

Within the portfolio, FIVN provides exposure to high-quality enterprise software with a more balanced risk profile than many emerging technology companies. Strong recurring revenues, expanding AI capabilities, and an attractive position within the broader digital transformation theme make it a suitable long-term holding as the business cycle progresses.

Chart from the original entry point

Context: FIVN is currently displaying multiple reversal signals following what appears to be the completion of a cyclical decline that began in 2021. The chart above highlights a bullish quarterly reversal accompanied by increasing relative volume, suggesting improving institutional participation. Contained within this quarterly candle is a developing five-wave advance, further supporting the case for a change in trend. Five-wave impulses typically signal the beginning of a new bullish phase, so seeing one emerge within a quarterly reversal candle strengthens the overall technical outlook.

Daily chart 08/26/2026

Weekly chart 08/26/2026

FIVN is now testing the upper trendline of the cyclical downtrend for support an exciting development. I like that price action has spent a few weeks there already without being rejected. However, we must be aware that a break back into the channel is not completely out of the cards yet. Price action needs to accelerate higher away from this zone with renewed strength to increase the odds further that the turn is truly here. (08/26/2026).

Portfolio Performance:

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When accounting for previously exited positions, as of Friday the 21st, the current overall performance since inception is now +94%, nicely outpacing the Nasdaq at 49%.

Conclusion:

The portfolio's performance has increased from +92% to +94% since the last update.

The performance has been mixed this time, with strong advances seen in individual companies. RIG was the standout performer, gaining an impressive 12.55% after moving away from the supportive trendline. TSLA also put in a meaningful advance, rising over 10%. And SMT, our largest core holding, rose 6%, which is a decent move for a fund and one that continues to shoulder the advance of the whole portfolio this update.

Our defensive plays, UNH, and SWBI, retreated along with AMZN and FIVN.

After the strong run higher off the low at the end of July, which took the Nasdaq up and out of its corrective channel, the last week or so has seen the market retreat and retrace some of those gains. This is to be expected after a strong rebound. Now the index finds itself at a key technical inflection point, resting on top of the most recent correction. With GMI total liquidity rising to new ATH’s and the Nasdaq following along with a 3-month lag, the odds favor a continuation higher in the index. The next update should reveal whether the advance happens from current levels or after another leg lower.

J.B.

Disclaimer: The views and trade ideas expressed in this publication are provided for educational and informational purposes only. They reflect the personal opinions, market approach, and research process of Joe Bland (@trendchanges) and are not intended as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

All opinions are subject to change without notice, and while every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of data, charts, and commentary, no guarantee is given regarding the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of any information presented.

Any investment decisions made based on the content of this report are entirely at the reader’s own risk. Joe Bland (@trendchanges) accepts no responsibility or liability for any financial losses or consequences resulting from actions taken based on this publication.

Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Joe Bland

Joe has been a dedicated student of the markets for over 20 years. During this time, he has been finely tuning his skills for his trading operations. After following flawed opinion-based macro analysis in his early years, he was drawn to more reliable market signals. These came through technical and sentiment-based tools such as trend channels, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese candlesticks, and the big picture that appears when they are all used together to find better entry and exit points.

Being very self-reliant, Joe was naturally drawn to the markets as a way to generate profits on his own — something he sees as just as valuable as the profits themselves.

He enjoys breaking things down step by step in a clear, systematic way and aims to share his thought process with members to help them on their own journey.

Joe’s trade ideas on Real Vision have become some of the most popular and profitable on the platform — something he is very proud of.

In his spare time, he enjoys traveling, mountain walking, going to the gym, listening to audiobooks, and spending time with his family.