US Equity Strategy
Low bar and strong revisions into 3Q earnings
S&P 500 3Q earnings appear to be setting up against a low bar, with nearly 70% of companies expected to deliver slower EPS growth than in 2Q. Revisions remain unusually strong, with estimates up 1.8%, including 3.6% for Tech+ and 0.8% for ex-Tech+. Median EPS growth is expected to moderate to 9.1% from 14.6% in 2Q, but the median stock has derated 7% since the start of 2Q reporting, suggesting the deceleration is already priced. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 26.3% y/y and could finish close to 30% based on the historical beat of approximately 3%. That would mark the second highest growth rate since 4Q21, behind only last quarter.
Tech+ continues to drive growth
Tech+ revenue growth is expected to remain robust at 31.1% y/y in 3Q, broadly in line with 30.7% in 2Q, while EPS growth is projected to decelerate to 46.7% from 54.2%.
- Semiconductors continue to lead, with EPS growth expected to reach 130%. Tech+ ex-Big 6 EPS growth is projected to accelerate sharply to 100.4%, with Micron already contributing 5.6pp to S&P 500 EPS growth. S&P 500 EPS growth y/y for 3Q ex-MU, NVDA, AVGO, SNDSK is 13.5%.
- UBS expects hyperscaler cloud revenue to grow 60% y/y in 3Q, accelerating from 50% in 2Q and ahead of consensus at 56%. Over the N4Q, UBS expects cloud revenue to reach $574bn, ~15% above consensus and ~73% growth vs L4Q.
- Big 6 EPS is expected to grow 22.4% (NVDA: 89.0%, MSFT: 14.4%, GOOG: 6.5%, AAPL: 5.5%, AMZN: 1.8%, META: -10.3%).
S&P 500 ex-Tech+ growth is expected to decelerate, but remain positive
Full year 2026 EPS growth expectations for ex-Tech+ have risen 7pp since June, compared with a typical decline of approximately 1pp, though consensus still expects a deceleration. S&P 500 ex-Tech+ EPS is projected to grow 14.6% in 3Q, well below the 24.8% delivered in 2Q. All 11 sectors and 73% of S&P 500 companies expected to deliver positive EPS growth, though Telcos and Staples are the weakest at just over 3%. Margins are expected to contract across Staples, Utilities, Telcos, Health Care, REITs, Financials and Industrials ex-BA. Excluding Tech+ and Energy, S&P 500 EPS growth falls to 7.0% y/y.
Analyst stock survey for earnings season surprises
We leverage data from the UBS Quantitative Research Review (link) to identify stocks with potential upside or downside around earnings. The survey translates UBS lead equity analysts’ forward looking views into standardized scores that capture short horizon expectations for positive or negative surprises versus consensus. The survey covers 762 stocks in our liquid universe, including 740 yet to report. We screen for companies with the strongest positive and negative surprise scores, then overlay UBS Quant crowding data and valuation scores from our R.E.V.S. framework. This process identifies 40 stocks that screen positively and 20 that screen negatively for an earnings surprise. GEN, MTDR, AJG, KTB and SARO have the strongest positive setups, while DOW, ES, EVR, ADP and GPK screen most negatively.
Gamma Rentals framework from our derivatives strategists
While single stock volatility has moderated from the extreme levels seen during Q2 reporting, earnings revision volatility remains near five year highs and index correlations remain exceptionally low. Consistent with this macro backdrop, our derivative strategists' Gamma Rentals highlights opportunities in Tech, Financials, Materials and Energy as the most attractive sectors in which to own pairwise volatility into earnings.
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 21.
EPS growth - overview
Assuming revisions follow the typical pattern, we expect 3Q EPS growth to finish close to 30% (vs. 26.3% today).
Energy and Tech+ are expected to outpace the rest of the market with EPS growth at 120.7% and 31.1% y/y respectively.
All sectors are projected to deliver positive growth,though Telcos and Staples are weakest with EPS growth of just over 3%.
Financials are the largest drag on index growth, with EPS expected to rise just 5.0% y/y, down sharply from 21.2% last quarter and 24.9% a year ago. Excluding Financials, index earnings growth would be 31.3%.
Materials is the second-strongest sector outside Tech+, with EPS expected to rise 30.4% y/y, versus 38.2% in 2Q, alongside 19.2% y/y margin growth.
Industrials growth is expected to remain stable at 17.2% y/y vs 18.3% in 2Q, but falls to just 3.9% excluding BA.
Margins are expected to contract across Staples, Utilities, Telcos, Healthcare, REITs, Financials and Industrials ex-BA.
Key points to watch out for
While median EPS growth is expected to moderate to 9.1% from 14.6% in 2Q, the S&P 500 has derated 7% at the median since 2Q earnings season started suggesting the deceleration is already priced
UBS estimates 60% y/y increase in hyperscalers' cloud revenues compared to 50% growth in Q2.
This is well ahead of consensus estimates of 56% growth for Q3
Earnings surprise screener
We leverage data from the UBS Quantitative Research Review (link) to identify stocks with potential upside or downside around earnings. The survey translates UBS lead equity analysts’ forward-looking views into standardized scores that capture short-horizon expectations for positive or negative surprises versus consensus.
We focus on stocks where UBS analysts expect a positive surprise vs consensus. We overlay with our proprietary crowding and valuation factors.
Top 5 names are RGEN, MTDR, AJG, KTB and SARO
We focus on stocks where UBS analysts expect a negative surprise vs consensus.
Top 5 names are DOW, ES, EVR, ADP, and GPK
EPS Growth
TECH+ outsized impact on S&P 500 growth is expected to continue.
S&P 500 ex-Tech+ is projected to report EPS growth of 14.6% in 3Q, well below the 24.8% delivered in 2Q.
3Q26 EPS growth lags 2Q26 EPS growth, but is still strong compared to historical levels.
The median company is expected to outgrow the cap-weighted index in 5 out of 11 sectors.
On a median basis, Energy and Tech+ are expected to see the highest growth.
Tech+ is expected to contribute 46.7% to the index EPS growth (11.7% of the 26.3% Index growth).
Semiconductors continue to lead, with EPS growth expected to reach 130%.
Big 6 EPS is expected to grow 22.4% (NVDA: 89.0%, MSFT: 14.4%, GOOG: 6.5%, AAPL: 5.5%, AMZN: 1.8%, META: -10.3%)
Financials' EPS growth is expected to lag other sectors at 5.0% y/y, down sharply from 21.2% last quarter and 24.9% a year ago.
Semiconductors continue to lead with EPS growth expected to reach 130%.
EPS Growth Contribution
Tech+ accounts for 6 of the top 15 contributors to 3Q growth.
As a group, Big 6 Tech+ stocks contribute 5.6% to Index EPS growth.
UBER and META are the largest detractors.
EPS Revisions
Earnings estimates typically decline going into reporting season, and improve as results come in. That is not the case this quarter with EPS revisions improving over the last 3 months .
3Q estimates up 1.8% for the S&P 500, including 3.6% for Tech+ and 0.8% for ex-Tech+.
Tech+ is still a positive for S&P 500 earnings, and the overhang from ex-Tech may be subsiding.
2026 revisions have continued to be strong through 1Q and 2Q.
Even for ex-Tech which had been revised down -5% historically.
2026 EPS growth expectations for ex-Tech+ have risen 7pp since June, compared with a typical ~1pp decline.
Historical Growth Trends
EPS Surprise
Historical Surprise Trends
Earnings Calendar
Earnings season kicks off with JPM and several other key Financials
Full Year Revisions
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Equity market returns are influenced by corporate earnings, interest rates, risk premia, as well as other variables influenced by the business cycle. The outlook for any and all of these variables is subject to change.
Risks include macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth rates and inflation), economic slowdown, a weakening currency, global economic events, and government policy changes. Our quantitative models rely on reported financial statement information, consensus earnings forecasts and stock prices. Errors in these numbers are sometimes impossible to prevent (as when an item is misstated by a company). Also, the models employ historical data to estimate the efficacy of stock selection strategies and the relationships among strategies, which may change in the future. Additionally, unusual company-specific events could overwhelm the systematic influence of the strategies used to rank and score stocks. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Valuation methods across sectors include DCF, SOTP and multiples analysis.
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Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.
UBS Global Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions
| 12-Month Rating | Definition | Coverage1 | IB Services2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | FSR is > 6% above the MRA. | 55% | 24% |
| Neutral | FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. | 39% | 20% |
| Sell | FSR is > 6% below the MRA. | 6% | 21% |
Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 30 September 2026.
1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category.
2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.
KEY DEFINITIONS:Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). Under Review (UR) Stocks may be flagged as UR by the analyst, indicating that the stock's price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the near term, usually in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation. Equity Price Targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.
EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES:UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions are: Buy: Positive on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount. Core Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Consultation (IRC). Factors considered by the IRC include the stock's volatility and the credit spread of the respective company's debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.
Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such analysts may not be associated persons of UBS Securities LLC and therefore are not subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. The name of each affiliate and analyst employed by that affiliate contributing to this report, if any, follows.
UBS AG London Branch: Shreyas Guntur.UBS Securities LLC: Jack Fu, Keith Parker, Maxwell Grinacoff, CFA, Sean Simonds.
Company Disclosures
Source: UBS Global Research; LSEG Eikon. All prices as of local market close. Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing date.
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- 13.
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- 20b.
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- 28a.
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- 28b.
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Additional Prices: SanDisk Corp, US$1487.33 (12 Oct 2026); Coinbase Global Inc, US$180.39 (12 Oct 2026); Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close.
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