S&P 500 third-quarter profits are projected up 26.5 percent after a multiple reset to 19 times, while 37 percent of fund managers await a 6.0 percent ten-year yield to shift from stocks to bonds
Tightening financial conditions compress valuations beneath index heavyweights while sustained hardware cash flows and Chinese export demand anchor global technology earnings
The earnings case supports continued US index exposure. The quality of that exposure depends on broader participation, stable financing conditions and the conversion of AI investment into cash returns.