End of Week Market Intelligence: here comes AI...

End of Week Market Intelligence: here comes AI...

... and you may be wearing it

Today’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed a modest uptick, with the dispersion index rising to 48.1 — still signaling that more people feel things are getting worse than getting better, but not as many more as in prior surveys.

Also today, we got a strong durable goods report that compelled our economists to

Goods Orders Above Consensus Expectations; Boosting Q3 GDP Tracking Estimate to

And earlier this week, we saw a strong gain in S&P’s PMI surveys of business sentiment as Pierfrancesco Mei discussed in an update today, “Do the PMI Surveys Signal That Growth Is Surging?” This latter data point contributed to the surge in yields that we saw this week — 10-year Treasury yields are up 20 bp for the week to 5.17%. But our economists caution that the S&P reading may not accurately capture activity. The S&P PMIs have been much firmer than most other business surveys released so far this month, which have instead increased more modestly or even declined. Second, part of the strength in the business surveys likely reflects nominal bias—the boost to survey index levels caused by respondents who think in dollar rather than real terms (i.e., inflation played a part).

Stepping back from this week’s news and price action, markets are having to contend more broadly with two ‘unprecedented’ developments: rates above 5% and the AI boom.

Neither of these are actually unprecedented, of course, and markets have performed reasonably well in periods of much higher rate regimes, like the 1990’s (see Ben Snider’s Sep-11 Kickstart, “The impact of higher interest rates on equities in charts”). Even this year, the move higher in rates has so far done little, if anything, to stifle stock market performance (the S&P 500 is up ~13% ytd), GDP growth (see our 3Q tracker above), or even investment (see durable goods orders above).

On the latter, Eric Sheridan, Gabriela Borges, Jim Schneider, and Ryan Hammond should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research dove deep into the AI spending spree overnight, and the returns necessary to justify it all, in two separate notes, “Technology: Sizing the AI Economy Needed to Justify ROIC on

Hyperscaler AI Capex” and “US Equity Views: AI capex, required revenues, and what’s priced in the AI trade.” We estimate that the six major US-based hyperscalers (GOOGL,

AMZN, MSFT, META, ORCL and SPCX) must generate a combined ~$1.42 trillion of cumulative CY2028–30 revenues (or ~$11.6 billion of annual revenue per GW) to clear a 15% ROIC hurdle on the big AI investments they are making this year and next. This is a big revenue hurdle, and near-term returns are likely to compress. But this compression is a natural consequence of the massive upfront investment cycle rather than evidence of structurally poor AI economics in our view.

Plus, a number of the hyperscalers are starting to demonstrate just how profitable their

AI platforms can be.

GOOGL is supplementing search and remains on the frontier of LLM development;

• MSFT is strengthening its offering to the enterprise through its CoPilot product,
• AMZN’s AWS cloud backlog is so large that it may only need to realize 60% of its backlog to realize strong returns; SPCX is in a good position to lease out excess compute capacity at very high spot
• prices; and META just launched its AI platform Muse.

• On the latter, Eric Sheridan highlighted how management is planning a continued expansion of Muse, including computer-use capabilities and additional commerce,

payments and productivity connectors at its investor and user event this week in “META: Connect 2026: Muse Takes Center Stage as Meta Articulates a Vision Centered Around

Agentic AI, Hardware & Personal Intelligence.” META previewed Muse products to enhance security, privacy, and voice control at this week’s event. And management also framed a strategic shift in its hardware roadmap toward glasses as a primary interface for personal superintelligence, reflecting the faster-than-expected development and integration of AI into augmented and virtual reality form factors. All concrete ways that AI is permeating the consumer experience, generating revenue for META (at least), and shifting the conversation further into the world of AI applications — not just infrastructure.

chart of the week

As the AI trade evolves, investors may be eager to move on from the original AI beneficiaries like NVDA and the hyperscalers in search of companies that are in the earlier stages of an AI boost. But the early stage stocks are well positioned to continue to benefit in the next stage of the AI boom as Eric Sheridan, Gabriela Borges, Jim Schneider, and Ryan Hammond discussed in, “Technology: Sizing the AI Economy Needed to Justify ROIC on Hyperscaler AI Capex” and “US Equity Views: AI capex, required revenues, and what’s priced in the AI trade.” And the hyperscalers in particular

— in this case, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, and ORCL — now trade at a much more reasonable valuation than you may think as earnings have caught up to (and now even exceeded) performance (see chart below).

We end September and kick off October (wow, this month went quick) next week complete with the usual complement of big data releases including a fresh ISM

Manufacturing Index on Thursday and the September Payrolls report on Friday. We also get the preferred inflation measure of the Fed — PCE — on Wednesday for a comprehensive real-time view of three of the most important economic indicators.

On the corporate earnings front, we should get results from a handful of interesting stocks, including: MU, NKE, CCL, JBL, and KMX.

And finally, on the research front, we are hosting a First Take call on this weekend’s Trump-Xi meetings on Sunday night, an Agentic commerce webinar on Tuesday, and sitting down with our stock and bond strategists to talk about the rising competition for capital on Wednesday.

• Cheng Li, University of Hong Kong; Hai Zhao, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;
• Landscape with Eric Sheridan, Will Nance, George Tong, Kate McShane, Bonnie Herzog, Brooke Roach, Leah Jordan, Gabriela Borges & Stephen Laszczyk;

• Oppenheimer, Amanda Lynam & Will Marshall; moderated by Chris Hussey | Click here to register.

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